Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction: Preview and Betting Tips

Portland Thorns W welcome Chicago Red Stars W to Providence Park on 13 September 2026 in NWSL Women Group Stage action, with the two clubs arriving from very different ends of the table. Portland sit 6th with 38 points from 23 matches and are firmly in the mix for the play-offs, while Chicago are bottom in 16th on just 16 points and fighting to restore pride after a bruising campaign.

For fans searching for Portland Thorns vs Chicago Red Stars predictions and NWSL betting tips, this fixture offers a classic clash between one of the league’s most dangerous attacking units and its leakiest defence. Portland’s strong home record and wealth of attacking talent, led by Sophia Smith and P. Tordin, contrasts sharply with Chicago’s struggles in both boxes.

With the bookmakers making Portland an overwhelming favourite and historical head-to-head meetings heavily tilted towards the Thorns, this Group Stage tie looks on paper like a must-win opportunity for the hosts and a daunting trip for the Red Stars.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Key Stats

• Portland Thorns W are 6th with 38 points and a +5 goal difference (37 scored, 32 conceded) after 23 matches, including 7 wins in 11 home games.
• In their latest meeting on 3 May 2026, Portland Thorns W beat Chicago Red Stars W 2-0 away in NWSL Women Group Stage play.
• Across 23 Group Stage matches, Portland average 1.6 goals scored per game and have kept 9 clean sheets, while Chicago average just 0.6 goals scored and have conceded 2.3 per match.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 6 vs 16
• Points: 38 vs 16
• Goals For: 37 vs 13
• Goals Against: 32 vs 53
• Clean Sheets: Portland Thorns W 9; Chicago Red Stars W 3 (tournament statistics over 23 matches)

Standings underline just how far apart these sides have been in 2026. Portland’s 11 wins and positive goal difference have them tracking towards the play-offs, backed by a formidable home record of 7 wins, 3 draws and just 1 defeat at Providence Park (20 goals scored, 7 conceded in 11 home games).

Chicago, by contrast, have endured a torrid Group Stage. They have lost 17 of 23 matches, scored only 13 goals and conceded 53, giving them a -40 goal difference. Away from home they have been particularly vulnerable, with 1 win and 11 defeats in 12 away fixtures, scoring just 3 times and shipping 31 goals. On form and underlying numbers, this is a top-six contender against the league’s weakest side.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Key Matchups

S. Smith vs Chicago back line

Sophia Smith has been one of the standout forwards in NWSL Women 2026. For Portland, she has 10 goals and 1 assist in 23 appearances, with 20 starts and 1,594 minutes. She has taken 60 shots with 37 on target, underlining her volume and accuracy, and carries a strong 7.2 average rating. Smith also contributes outside the box with 298 passes, 27 key passes and 62 dribble attempts (30 successful), plus drawing 26 fouls. Up against a Chicago defence conceding 2.3 goals per game and often collapsing after half-time, Smith’s movement and finishing look poised to cause major problems.

P. Tordin vs Chicago midfield and defence

P. Tordin has emerged as a creative and goalscoring hub for Portland. In 23 appearances (22 starts, 1,648 minutes), Tordin has produced 6 goals and 7 assists, ranking near the top of the league for chance creation. With 33 shots (14 on target), 385 passes and an impressive 36 key passes, she links midfield and attack superbly. Defensively she is no passenger either, with 32 tackles, 2 blocks and 6 interceptions, plus 100 duels won from 206 contested. Against a Chicago side that struggles to control midfield and often concedes heavily in the 46–60 and 61–75 minute windows, Tordin’s ability to exploit space between the lines could decide the match.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These clubs have met frequently in recent NWSL seasons, and Portland have generally had the upper hand, especially in high-scoring encounters.

• 3 May 2026: Chicago Red Stars W 0-2 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women Group Stage)
• 14 September 2025: Chicago Red Stars W 1-1 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women Regular Season - 20)
• 22 June 2025: Portland Thorns W 1-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women Regular Season - 13)
• 14 September 2024: Portland Thorns W 0-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women Regular Season - 15)
• 27 April 2024: Chicago Red Stars W 0-2 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women Regular Season - 5)

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction

Stats suggest a one-sided contest tilted heavily towards Portland. The prediction model gives the Thorns a 50% chance of victory, with a 50% probability of a draw and effectively no win probability assigned to Chicago (0%). That aligns with the standings, recent form and underlying metrics.

Portland’s recent five-match sample shows 9 goals scored and 7 conceded, indicating they can both create and give up chances, but Chicago’s last five are far worse: 4 scored and 20 conceded. Chicago’s attack averages just 0.6 goals per game over the Group Stage and has failed to score in 16 of 23 matches, while Portland have failed to score only twice.

Head-to-head trends also favour the hosts, with Portland taking several multi-goal wins in recent years, including 2-0 away in May 2026 and 3-2, 4-0 and 3-0 victories in earlier seasons. Given Chicago’s defensive record and Portland’s strength at Providence Park, a home win with a clean sheet looks highly plausible.

Predicted Score: Portland Thorns W 2-0 Chicago Red Stars W

Portland Thorns W Recent Form

Portland’s recent Group Stage form has been strong, with a pattern of frequent wins and only occasional setbacks. They have 11 victories from 23 matches and a positive goal difference, and their last-five performance index sits at 67 for overall form, with attack at 53 and defence at 59. At home they have been especially reliable, losing just once in 11 games and keeping 7 clean sheets, underlining why they are heavily favoured here.

Chicago Red Stars W Recent Form

Chicago’s recent form paints a bleak picture. Their Group Stage run includes 17 defeats in 23 matches, and their last-five index shows only 20 for form, 24 for attack and 0 for defence, reflecting a spell in which they have conceded 20 goals in five games (an average of 4 per match). With just one away win all campaign and 11 away defeats, confidence and defensive solidity are both in short supply.

Portland Thorns W Possible Starting Lineup

Potential key players for Portland Thorns W (by position): GK M. Arnold; defenders J. Perry, R. Reyes, M. Vignola, I. Obaze; midfielders J. Fleming, O. Moultrie, C. Bogere, P. Tordin; forwards S. Smith, D. Castellanos.

Portland have the squad depth to maintain their preferred back-four structure, with J. Perry and R. Reyes offering defensive steel and some attacking thrust from wide areas. In midfield, J. Fleming and O. Moultrie provide control and creativity, while P. Tordin links lines and adds assists and goals. Up front, Sophia Smith is the focal point, supported by the likes of D. Castellanos and other wide forwards, giving the Thorns multiple routes to goal.

Chicago Red Stars W Possible Starting Lineup

Potential key players for Chicago Red Stars W (by position): GK A. Naeher; defenders S. Staab, Leila Ouahabi, A. Farmer, T. Malham; midfielders J. Grosso, Maitane López, B. Pinto, B. Franklin; forwards M. Swanson, J. Huitema.

Chicago have rotated through several formations in 2026, most commonly 4-2-3-1, 4-1-4-1 and 4-3-3, as they search for balance. With experienced internationals like A. Naeher in goal and M. Swanson in attack, there is quality in key areas, but the collective structure has struggled. Expect a cautious setup, with extra bodies in midfield to try to slow Portland’s transitions and protect a defence that has conceded heavily, particularly just after half-time.

Portland Thorns W Team News

No significant absences reported.

Chicago Red Stars W Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Portland Thorns W:

• None reported.

Chicago Red Stars W:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Portland Thorns W to win. Bookmakers price the home win between 1.17 and 1.24, implying an approximate probability range of 80.6% to 85.5%. With Portland 6th and strong at home, and Chicago bottom with 11 away defeats from 12, the short odds are justified.
• Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. Portland’s Group Stage matches have gone over 2.5 goals only 2 times in 23, and Chicago’s attack averages just 0.6 goals per game. While odds for goal lines are not listed in the available data, the combination of Portland’s solid home defence and Chicago’s blunt attack points towards a controlled home win rather than a wild shootout.
• Value Tip: Portland Thorns W to win to nil (home win and Chicago to score 0), if offered at a reasonable price. Chicago have failed to score in 16 of 23 Group Stage games and have only 3 away goals all campaign, while Portland have 9 clean sheets in 23 matches. Given the match-winner odds (home 1.17–1.24, away 8.38–10.40), any win-to-nil price significantly above the straight home win could offer extra value.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.