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Burnley vs Wolves Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Burnley and Wolves meet at Turf Moor on 24 May 2026 in a high-stakes Premier League relegation shootout. With both sides already sitting in the relegation places, this final-day clash is about pride, prize money, and momentum heading into life in the Championship rather than survival itself. Turf Moor has seen Burnley struggle all year, but this is a chance to sign off in front of their own fans with a statement result.

Burnley arrive 19th in the table on 21 points after 37 matches, having endured a bruising campaign at both ends of the pitch. Wolves are the only side below them, 20th with 19 points, and still without an away league win all season. For supporters and bettors alike, this Burnley vs Wolves prediction hinges on whether the home side’s marginally better attack can overcome Wolves’ slightly sturdier defence in what looks like a tight, low-scoring encounter.

Stats suggest a tense, attritional match rather than a classic, but the recent head-to-head record adds intrigue. Burnley have often enjoyed themselves against Wolves at Turf Moor, while Wolves have dominated many of the contests at Molineux. With both clubs facing the reality of relegation, expect a fiercely contested Premier League finale.

Burnley vs Wolves Key Stats

  • Burnley are 19th with 21 points from 37 games, scoring 37 and conceding 74 in the league.
  • Across their last five competitive meetings listed, Burnley have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat against Wolves in the Premier League and League Cup.
  • Burnley average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per league game this season, while Wolves average 0.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Burnley vs Wolves — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 19 vs 20
  • Points: 21 vs 19
  • Goals For: 37 vs 26
  • Goals Against: 74 vs 67
  • Clean Sheets: Burnley 4 vs Wolves 4

The season record shows two of the division’s weakest sides facing off. Burnley’s 37 goals from 37 games underline a modest attack, but they have still outscored Wolves by 11. The problem has been at the back: 74 goals conceded is one of the worst tallies in the league, with an average of 2.0 per match and some heavy defeats along the way.

Wolves’ numbers point to a different type of struggle. With just 26 goals scored and 0.7 per game, they have been blunt in attack, especially away from home where they have managed only 7 goals in 18 matches. However, their 67 goals conceded (1.8 per game) is marginally better than Burnley’s defensive record. Both teams have registered 4 clean sheets, highlighting that neither has been able to sustain defensive solidity. With Burnley in the “Relegation - Championship” zone and Wolves alongside them, this fixture is about finishing above a direct rival and salvaging some end-of-season respect.

Burnley vs Wolves Key Matchups

Z. Flemming vs André

Zian Flemming has been Burnley’s standout attacking threat. The midfielder has 10 league goals from 28 appearances, starting 20 of those and playing 1,723 minutes. He has taken 37 shots with 20 on target, underlining his importance as a consistent source of attempts on goal. He has also converted 2 penalties from 2, reinforcing his reliability in high-pressure moments.

For Wolves, André has been a central figure in midfield, particularly without the ball. He has made 34 appearances, starting 29, and logged 2,676 minutes. While he has only 1 goal and no assists, his defensive output is notable: 78 tackles, 12 blocks and 29 interceptions, plus 281 duels with 143 won. His 12 yellow cards show how often he operates on the edge. This matchup pits Burnley’s primary goal threat against Wolves’ most combative midfielder, and whoever wins this duel could tilt the balance in the middle of the park.

K. Walker vs João Gomes

Kyle Walker has been a mainstay for Burnley at the back, with 35 appearances and 3,007 minutes. Although he has not scored, he has contributed 2 assists and 12 key passes, showing his ability to support attacks from deep. Defensively, 55 tackles, 10 blocks and 44 interceptions highlight his experience and reading of the game, even in a struggling back line. His 9 yellow cards underline how much defending he has been forced to do.

João Gomes is Wolves’ all-action midfielder, with 35 appearances, 32 starts and 2,843 minutes. He combines ball-winning and distribution: 108 tackles, 36 interceptions and 449 duels (227 won), along with 1 goal, 1 assist, 16 key passes and 1,453 completed passes at 85% accuracy. His 10 yellow cards show his aggressive style. The battle between Walker’s defensive leadership on Burnley’s right and João Gomes’ relentless energy through Wolves’ midfield will be crucial in determining which side controls territory and tempo.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent meetings between Burnley and Wolves have been tight and often low-scoring, with Burnley enjoying the better record at Turf Moor and Wolves more competitive at Molineux. Across the last five competitive fixtures listed below, Burnley have taken two wins, Wolves two, with one draw.

  • 26 October 2025: Wolves 2-3 Burnley (Premier League)
  • 28 August 2024: Wolves 2-0 Burnley (League Cup)
  • 2 April 2024: Burnley 1-1 Wolves (Premier League)
  • 5 December 2023: Wolves 1-0 Burnley (Premier League)
  • 9 July 2022: Wolves 3-0 Burnley (Friendlies Clubs)

Burnley vs Wolves Prediction

Analysis points to a cagey contest. Both sides come into this with poor league form: Burnley’s recent run reads “LDLLL” and Wolves’ is “DLDLL”, underlining how hard wins have been to come by. Burnley have a slight edge in attacking output, especially at home, while Wolves’ away record — 0 wins, 5 draws and 13 defeats with only 7 goals scored — is deeply concerning.

Prediction metrics give Wolves a marginal overall edge, with the comparison suggesting a 54.2% tilt towards the visitors and the main prediction advice favouring “Double chance: draw or Wolves”. The win probabilities are split 10% home, 45% draw, 45% away, indicating a strong chance Wolves avoid defeat but not necessarily that they dominate. With both teams struggling to score and the goals projection set conservatively, a low-scoring draw fits the pattern.

Predicted Score: Burnley 1-1 Wolves

Burnley League Form

LDLLL

Wolves League Form

DLDLL

Burnley Possible Starting Lineup

M. Dúbravka; K. Walker, M. Estève, A. Tuanzebe, Lucas Pires; J. Ward-Prowse, Florentino, J. Laurent; Z. Flemming, J. Bruun Larsen; L. Foster.

Burnley have frequently used back-four systems such as 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3, and the available squad suggests a similar shape again. M. Dúbravka offers experience in goal, while K. Walker’s minutes and defensive stats make him a near-certainty at right-back. In midfield, J. Ward-Prowse and Florentino can provide structure and set-piece threat, with J. Laurent adding physicality. Further forward, Z. Flemming is the key attacking focal point, supported by the likes of J. Bruun Larsen and L. Foster to supply runs in behind and penalty-box presence.

Wolves Possible Starting Lineup

José Sá; Y. Mosquera, Toti Gomes, L. Krejčí; Pedro Lima, André, João Gomes, Hugo Bueno; Rodrigo Gomes; Hwang Hee-Chan, A. Armstrong.

Wolves have leaned heavily on three-at-the-back systems such as 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2, and their squad composition suits a similar approach here. José Sá is a leading candidate in goal, with Y. Mosquera and Toti Gomes central to the back line. In midfield, André and João Gomes bring ball-winning and passing quality, supported by wing-backs like Pedro Lima and Hugo Bueno. In attack, Hwang Hee-Chan and A. Armstrong can offer movement and finishing, while Rodrigo Gomes links play between the lines.

Burnley Team News

No significant absences reported.

Wolves Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Burnley:

  • None reported.

Wolves:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Burnley vs Wolves

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back Wolves Double Chance (Draw or Away). With Wolves given 45% win probability and 45% draw probability versus just 10% for Burnley, the safer angle is to side with the visitors not to lose. Bookmakers price Wolves to win around 2.75 with Bet365 and 2.79 with Pinnacle, and the draw around 3.40 with Bet365 and 3.66 with Pinnacle, making a combined “draw or Wolves” angle attractive within multiples or bet builders.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 Goals. Burnley average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, while Wolves average 0.7 scored and 1.8 conceded, and their recent clashes have often been tight (1-1 at Turf Moor on 2 April 2024, 1-0 at Molineux on 5 December 2023). With the match winner odds clustered in the 2.40–2.84 range and the market expecting a close contest, a low-scoring game fits the statistical profile. Use the main firms such as Bet365, Unibet or Pinnacle for an Under 2.5 line at suitable prices.
  • Value Tip: Card-focused angle on Wolves’ midfield. André (12 yellow cards) and João Gomes (10 yellow cards) are among the most carded players in the league, and Wolves’ yellow-card distribution spikes between 46–60 and 61–75 minutes. While specific card markets are not listed here, combining a Wolves result angle (e.g. Wolves +0.5 on the handicap) with a cards-based leg in a builder at operators like Bet365, Betfair or 1xBet could offer value, given the consistently high disciplinary numbers of Wolves’ midfield.

How to Watch Burnley vs Wolves

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

  • Spain: Movistar LaLiga
  • UK: Premier Sports
  • Australia: beIN Sports
  • India: FanCode
  • MENA: beIN Sports
  • South America: ESPN / Disney+
  • Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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