Liverpool's Defensive Issues Open Door for Atlético at Anfield
Anfield knows this script. European lights, a snarling away side, and Atlético Madrid arriving with a plan to suffocate the noise and punish any mistake. This time, though, Liverpool walk into the tie with their back line still under construction – and Diego Simeone can smell the uncertainty.
Under Andoni Iraola, Liverpool have been loose without the ball. Four goals conceded in their first two Premier League games, both ending in draws, told their own story. The 2-0 win at Ipswich steadied things, but it did not erase the evidence of a defence still learning its movements.
Ronald Araújo has been shunted to right-back with Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni sidelined, a stopgap solution that asks a lot of the Uruguayan in wide areas. The structure is functional, not yet fluent. That is exactly the sort of weakness Atlético specialise in exposing.
They have done it here before. They won 3-2 at Anfield in 2019/20 and, last season, they clawed their way back from 2-0 down in this stadium. Simeone’s teams rarely panic in hostile environments; they wait, they absorb, and then they strike.
The market currently gives Atlético a 46.5% implied chance of avoiding defeat. On recent evidence, that looks cautious. The Spanish side have never actually won a league-phase game against English opposition, but they do not need to rip up that record to land the value: a draw is enough for the double-chance angle.
Bet 1: Draw or Atlético (Double Chance) @ 23/20 with Sky Bet
Isak sharpens Liverpool’s edge
At the other end of the pitch, one Liverpool player has already moved up a gear. Alexander Isak has started this Premier League campaign like a man determined to erase the memory of his stop-start debut season.
Three goals in three league matches. A ruthless brace at Ipswich last Friday, both inside nine minutes, part of a night where Cody Gakpo assisted all three of his strikes. The partnership clicked, and suddenly Isak looked like the centre-forward Liverpool thought they were signing.
Last season brought just four league goals in 22 appearances. This version of Isak is leaner, quicker, and far more decisive in the box. Iraola has clearly given him a central role in the attacking structure, and the Swede has responded.
Atlético’s defence, meanwhile, is hardly in lockdown mode. They arrive on Merseyside still smarting from a 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao, a performance that exposed gaps in an unsettled back line. That fragility offers Isak room to work, even if his European record – one goal in 13 Champions League outings – throws up an obvious warning sign.
The numbers still lean in his favour. An implied 47.6% chance of Isak scoring at any time feels on the low side given his current form and the service around him.
Bet 2: Alexander Isak anytime goalscorer @ 11/10 with Sky Bet
Simeone ready to drag Liverpool into a grind
The real concern for Liverpool lies not in finishing chances, but in creating them. Three games into the Premier League season, they sit 19th for big chances fashioned – just four in total. Brighton, by contrast, have carved out 15 in the same span.
For a side boasting Florian Wirtz, Gakpo and Isak, that output jars. The build-up has been tidy, but the incision is missing. Iraola’s system is still bedding in; the automatisms are not yet there.
This is exactly the kind of weakness Simeone will target. Pablo Barrios and Morten Hjulmand will patrol the spaces Wirtz loves to slip into between the lines, closing his angles and forcing him away from dangerous central zones. Behind them, Jan Oblak remains the calm, authoritative figure he has been for years.
Simeone will gladly turn Anfield into a slow, narrow contest, with little room to breathe in midfield and even less space in behind. Atlético have scored seven in their last four league games, so they are not blunt, especially with Julian Álvarez expected to return to the attack, but they are unlikely to open up the pitch and trade blows.
The goal line reflects that tension. With under 2.5 goals priced at an implied 42.2%, the expectation is still leaning towards a more open game than this matchup usually produces. Given Liverpool’s issues in chance creation and Atlético’s instinct to suffocate, that looks a generous entry point.
Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals @ 11/8 with Sky Bet
Álvarez to start as Simeone reshapes his attack
Atlético arrive on Merseyside in a curious state. That 3-0 loss at Bilbao stung, but they still sit sixth in La Liga with seven points from their first four matches. The foundation is there; the performance level needs to follow.
Simeone is ready to shake things up. Julian Álvarez is in line for his first start of the season, a move that should add mobility and bite to the front line. Cristian Romero is also pushing for his first start since joining the club, bolstering a defence that badly needs authority after the San Mamés setback.
Álvarez is expected to stay at Atlético at least until the January transfer window, and this feels like the moment to embed him properly. Alexander Sorloth is out with a thigh problem, and Arnau Ortiz is suspended, narrowing Simeone’s attacking options and making Álvarez’s inclusion even more likely.
Liverpool, for their part, still feel like a project in motion. Five points from three league games is a solid enough base, but the early weeks have been shaped by absences. Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni remain unavailable. Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo are not registered for Champions League action, trimming Iraola’s options further for this tie.
Even so, the 2-0 win at Ipswich – with Isak’s brace at Portman Road – has injected some belief into a squad still learning a new manager’s demands.
Probable lineups
Liverpool expected XI:
Alisson; Kerkez, Araújo, Jacquet, van Dijk; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Barcola; Wirtz, Gakpo, Isak.
Atlético Madrid expected XI:
Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Lookman; Baena, Álvarez.
Prediction: a tight, tactical fight
All signs point towards a cagey contest rather than a European classic. Liverpool’s defence is still knitting together, Atlético’s back line is coming off a heavy defeat, and yet both coaches are likely to prioritise control over chaos.
The call: Liverpool 1-1 Atlético Madrid.
Goalscorers prediction:
Liverpool: Isak
Atlético Madrid: Álvarez
For Iraola and Simeone, this is less about early-season statements and more about proof of concept. Which project bends first under the Anfield lights?
