CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League Prediction

CSKA Sofia host Maccabi Tel Aviv at the National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round second leg, carrying a commanding psychological edge after their 3–0 away win on 6 August at Batumi Arena. That first-leg result, with CSKA leading 2–0 at half-time and closing out 3–0, shapes both the tactical approach and the betting landscape for this return fixture.

Form-wise, the prediction model clearly leans towards CSKA. Their Europa League record shows 4 wins and 1 draw from 5 matches (form string “WWDWW”), unbeaten and consistent. They have scored 9 goals and conceded just 3, averaging 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded per game. At home, they are scoring 2.0 per match and allowing 1.0, while away they have been even tighter defensively (0.3 conceded on average). Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Europa League sample is smaller but decent: 3 games, 2 wins and 1 loss (“WWL”), with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. Notably, their away attacking numbers are explosive on paper (5 goals in 1 away match, average 5.0), but that is from a single data point and must be treated cautiously against CSKA’s more stable profile.

Looking at recent form indicators in the prediction data, CSKA’s last five matches block is strong: form index 87, attack 69, defense 77, with 9 scored and 3 conceded (1.8 for, 0.6 against). Maccabi’s last five (actually last three) show a form index of 67, attack 46, defense 77, with 6 scored and 3 conceded (2.0 for, 1.0 against). This reinforces the picture of CSKA as the more balanced side, combining solid attacking output with a tighter back line, whereas Maccabi rely more on bursts of attacking quality but are more vulnerable overall.

Goal-timing patterns also favour CSKA’s control. They spread their 9 Europa League goals across almost all intervals: they have scored in every 15-minute segment from 0–90 minutes, with a slight concentration between 16–30 minutes (2 goals, 28.57%). Defensively, they have been most exposed late, with 2 of 3 goals conceded between 76–90 minutes (50%). Maccabi’s 6 goals are similarly well-distributed (one in each of 0–15, 16–30, 46–60, 61–75, 76–90), indicating they can threaten throughout the match. However, all 3 goals they have conceded came at home; they have yet to concede away in this competition, but again, that rests on a single away outing.

Head-to-head, the only competitive meeting on record in the data is the first leg on 6 August 2026 at Batumi Arena: Maccabi Tel Aviv 0–3 CSKA Sofia. Maccabi were at home in that match and still lost heavily, with CSKA winning both halves (2–0 at the break, 3–0 full time). The prediction comparison block reflects this: the head-to-head index is 100 for CSKA and 0 for Maccabi, and the goals comparison is also 100–0, underlining CSKA’s dominance in that direct clash.

The model’s comparison indices give CSKA the edge in form (68 vs 32) and attack (60 vs 40), while defense is rated evenly at 50–50. The total comparison index stands at 59.3 for CSKA against 40.7 for Maccabi, pointing to a clear but not overwhelming overall advantage for the hosts. Interestingly, the Poisson distribution index is listed as 0 for CSKA and 100 for Maccabi, but this is not reflected in the main prediction, which instead favours the home side on the double-chance markets.

The official prediction block gives CSKA Sofia a 45% chance to win, the draw also at 45%, and Maccabi Tel Aviv just 10% to win. The recommended advice is explicitly “Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw,” and the winner field is tagged to CSKA with the comment “Win or draw.” That means the model sees Maccabi’s outright victory as a low-probability outcome, especially after the 3–0 first-leg defeat.

Bookmaker odds, however, price the match more evenly. Across the main firms, home odds for CSKA range from 2.23 to 2.41, implying an unadjusted probability band of roughly 41–45%. Draw odds run from 2.98 to 3.40 (about 29–34%), and away odds for Maccabi from 2.73 to 3.14 (about 32–37%). The market therefore treats this as a relatively balanced three-way, with only a slight lean towards CSKA at home, while the prediction model sharply downplays Maccabi’s win chances and boosts the draw probability.

For betting purposes, the safest alignment with the official prediction data is to follow the advised angle: CSKA Sofia or draw (double chance). It is directly supported by the 45% home win plus 45% draw probabilities, the unbeaten Europa League run (4 wins, 1 draw), the strong last-five indices, and the emphatic 3–0 away win in the first leg. Given the market’s relatively generous pricing on CSKA not to lose compared with the model’s 90% combined probability for home or draw, that double-chance selection stands out as the most data-driven play.