Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Anderlecht and PAOK meet at Lotto Park in Anderlecht on 13 August 2026 in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. With a place in the play-off round on the line, this clash in Belgium comes just a week after the tightly contested first leg in Thessaloniki.

Anderlecht carry a narrow advantage after a 1-0 away win at Toumba Stadium on 6 August 2026, a result that gives them control of the tie but leaves absolutely no margin for complacency. PAOK, who have already shown they can score freely in this Europa League campaign, know that a single goal could flip the momentum and turn the pressure back on the hosts.

Stats suggest a balanced matchup: both sides have scored five goals across their opening three Europa League fixtures this season, and both have recorded two wins from three. The numbers point to a finely poised encounter where Anderlecht’s home edge is offset by PAOK’s attacking threat, making this one of the more intriguing Europa League qualifying ties on the card.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Stats

• Anderlecht are unbeaten in the Europa League this season with 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches, scoring 5 and conceding just 2.
• The only recent head-to-head meeting saw Anderlecht beat PAOK 1-0 away in Thessaloniki on 6 August 2026 in the Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round.
• In tournament statistics, both teams have scored 5 goals in 3 matches (average 1.7 per game), while Anderlecht have conceded 0.7 per match compared to PAOK’s 1.0.

Anderlecht vs PAOK — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: Not available vs Not available
• Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
• Clean Sheets: Anderlecht 1, PAOK 1 (tournament statistics)

Group-stage standings are not yet in play at this qualifying phase, so there is no league table context to separate the sides. Instead, the tale of the tape is built on early Europa League form. Anderlecht have put together an unbeaten run (2 wins, 1 draw) across three fixtures, including that crucial away win in Greece, and have yet to lose in the competition.

PAOK’s record is similarly strong with 2 wins and 1 defeat, and their attacking numbers away from home are eye-catching: they average 3.0 goals scored per away game in this Europa League campaign. However, they have also been more vulnerable defensively on the road, conceding 2.0 goals per away match. Anderlecht, by contrast, have combined a solid defence (0.7 goals conceded per game) with efficient finishing, making them marginally more balanced over the small sample so far.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Matchups

Anderlecht attack vs PAOK defence

Without individual scorer data, the battle is best framed collectively. Anderlecht’s attack has produced 5 goals in 3 matches, with a particularly strong record at home where they average 3.0 goals per game in this Europa League run. Their goals are well distributed across the 90 minutes, with a significant share coming in the opening 15 minutes and the final quarter-hour, underlining their ability to start fast and finish strong.

PAOK’s defence, meanwhile, has been relatively solid at home (0.5 goals conceded per game) but more exposed away (2.0 conceded per match). They have shown a tendency to concede early, with a notable proportion of goals allowed in the first 15 minutes and late in matches. Against an Anderlecht side that scores heavily at home and is dangerous in those same periods, this matchup could decide the tie.

PAOK attack vs Anderlecht defence

PAOK’s attack has been equally productive, with 5 goals in 3 games and a standout away record of 3.0 goals per match. They tend to do their damage between the 31st and 60th minutes, a window where they have been particularly efficient in front of goal. This middle-phase pressure could test Anderlecht’s game management if the hosts are defending a narrow aggregate lead.

Anderlecht’s defence, however, has been one of the more impressive units in this qualifying phase, allowing just 2 goals in 3 matches (0.7 per game) and keeping one clean sheet. They have shown resilience at both the start and end of halves, with only a limited number of goals conceded in those high-pressure moments. If they maintain that organisation at Lotto Park, PAOK will have to be extremely clinical to turn the tie around.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have only recently crossed paths in European competition, with the first leg in Thessaloniki providing the most relevant reference point for this return match in Belgium.

• 06 August 2026: PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht (UEFA Europa League)

Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction

Form indicators and the first-leg result both lean slightly towards Anderlecht. They are unbeaten in three Europa League games, have not failed to score, and now bring the tie back to Lotto Park with a 1-0 aggregate lead. Their defensive numbers are marginally better than PAOK’s, and comparison indices give them a small edge in form and defensive solidity.

However, the probability breakdown suggests a very tight contest: there is a 45% chance of an Anderlecht win, 45% for the draw, and only 10% for a PAOK victory in 90 minutes. That points towards a match where the hosts are more likely to avoid defeat than to win comfortably. With PAOK needing to chase the game at some stage, there should be space for Anderlecht to counter, but the visitors’ own attacking output so far means they are capable of finding the net.

Predicted Score: Anderlecht 1-1 PAOK

Anderlecht Recent Form

Anderlecht’s recent Europa League form is strong, with a sequence of results that includes two wins and one draw from three matches. They have combined a reliable defence with a productive attack, scoring in every game and never conceding more than once. Their ability to win away, highlighted by the 1-0 success in Thessaloniki, underlines a team with confidence and tactical discipline at this stage of the competition.

PAOK Recent Form

PAOK come into the second leg on the back of two wins and one defeat in their three Europa League outings. They opened with back-to-back victories, including a high-scoring away win, before the narrow home loss to Anderlecht checked their momentum. Overall, they remain an attacking side with a strong goal output, but their defensive record, particularly away from home, leaves them vulnerable if they are forced to commit bodies forward in search of goals.

Anderlecht Possible Starting Lineup

GK: C. Coosemans or J. Heekeren; Defenders: L. Augustinsson, G. Biancone, L. Hey, M. N’Diaye, K. Sardella; Midfielders: E. Llansana, I. Camara, M. Stroeykens, O. Antman, N. Saliba; Forwards: D. Sikan, A. Bertaccini, M. Cvetkovic, E. Dao.

Anderlecht have the personnel to set up either in a 4-4-2 or 4-3-3, formations they have already used in this Europa League campaign. With several young attackers such as M. Cvetkovic and E. Dao alongside more experienced options like D. Sikan and O. Antman, they can alternate between a more direct front two and a fluid front three. At home, expect an aggressive but balanced shape, with full-backs like L. Augustinsson and K. Sardella offering width while a midfield anchor such as E. Llansana provides protection for the back line.

PAOK Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Pavlenka or A. Tsiftsis; Defenders: A. Baba, P. Hatzidiakos, Elustondo, J. Kenny, L. Lyratzis; Midfielders: M. Camara, S. Meïté, D. Pelkas, K. Despodov, G. Konstantelias, A. Živković, Taison; Forwards: T. Ali, A. Jeremejeff, M. Balde.

PAOK have consistently favoured a 4-2-3-1 setup in their Europa League fixtures, and the squad list supports that structure again. With creative midfielders such as D. Pelkas, K. Despodov, G. Konstantelias and A. Živković behind a central striker like A. Jeremejeff or T. Ali, they have ample playmaking and finishing quality. Full-backs A. Baba and J. Kenny can push high to overload the flanks, but given the aggregate situation, PAOK must balance their attacking intent with greater defensive security than they showed in earlier away games.

Anderlecht Team News

No significant absences reported.

PAOK Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Anderlecht:

• None reported.

PAOK:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Anderlecht vs PAOK

Below are three data-backed betting angles for this Europa League qualifier at Lotto Park.

• Result Tip: Anderlecht or Draw (Double Chance) – With a 45% chance of a home win and 45% for the draw, Anderlecht are heavily favoured to avoid defeat. The advice aligns with the “Anderlecht or draw” angle. The 1x2 market has the home side priced around 2.80–2.94 (implied roughly 34–36%), the draw 3.00–3.15 (about 31–33%), and PAOK 2.55–2.68 (around 37–39%), making the visitors a slight market favourite but the probability model still strongly supports Anderlecht not losing. Look for a double-chance price derived from these odds for a safer result-based play.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 Total Goals – Both teams average 1.7 goals scored per match in this Europa League campaign, and PAOK’s away games have been particularly open (3.0 goals for, 2.0 against on average). Anderlecht’s home average of 3.0 goals scored also points towards at least two goals in the match. The main totals line is set around +1.5, and combining the attacking numbers from both sides suggests over 1.5 goals is a strong candidate for inclusion in multiples at modest odds.
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score – Anderlecht have scored in all three of their Europa League fixtures and have yet to fail to find the net, while PAOK have produced 5 goals in 3 games and are especially dangerous away. Anderlecht’s defence is solid, but with PAOK needing to attack to overturn the aggregate deficit, chances at both ends look likely. With the 1x2 market slightly shading PAOK as favourite despite the first-leg loss, any BTTS price that is not too short could offer value compared with the implied goal potential of these sides.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.