AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

AC Milan and Benfica open their UEFA Europa League League Stage campaigns with a heavyweight clash in Milan on 16 September 2026. The tie brings together one of Italy’s traditional giants and a Benfica side that has already been in free-scoring form in this competition’s early rounds.

The match is listed as “League Stage - 1”, so both clubs start on zero points. Milan come into Europe with no competitive Europa League minutes yet this season and sit 23rd in the overall League Round ranking, while Benfica are placed 4th after a blistering qualifying phase and strong recent continental form. For Milan, this is about laying down a marker at home; for Benfica, it is a chance to turn their early attacking momentum into a statement result against elite opposition.

Benfica’s recent Europa League numbers – 19 goals scored in just 6 matches – suggest this AC Milan vs Benfica prediction will hinge on whether the Rossoneri can contain one of the most potent forward lines in the tournament so far.

AC Milan vs Benfica Key Stats

• AC Milan are ranked 23rd in the Europa League League Round table with 0 points and 0 matches played.
• The last meeting between these sides ended AC Milan 0-1 Benfica in the International Champions Cup on 28 July 2019.
• Benfica have scored 19 goals in 6 Europa League matches this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game, and have kept 1 clean sheet.

AC Milan vs Benfica — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 23 vs 4
• Points: 0 vs 0
• Goals For: 0 vs 0 (League Round standings to date)
• Goals Against: 0 vs 0 (League Round standings to date)
• Clean Sheets: AC Milan 0 (tournament statistics) vs Benfica 1 (tournament statistics)

Because this is the first League Stage match, the raw standings numbers are still neutral: both sides are on 0 points, with 0 goals scored and conceded in the League Round column. However, the ranking positions already hint at underlying form. Benfica sit 4th in the League Round hierarchy off the back of a strong Europa League run (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat across 6 matches), while Milan are down in 23rd with no games yet played in this competition cycle.

Benfica’s Europa League campaign to date has been defined by volume in attack. They average 3.2 goals per match, with a biggest home win of 6-1 and an away win of 1-3, and have failed to score in none of their 6 games. Defensively they concede 1.0 per match on average, which is respectable but not watertight. Milan, by contrast, arrive as an unknown quantity in this Europa League season: no goals scored or conceded, no clean sheets and no established streaks in this competition yet, so their true level will only become clear once the League Stage gets underway.

AC Milan vs Benfica Key Matchups

AC Milan attack unit vs V. Pavlidis

Milan’s forward options include experienced names like Gonçalo Ramos and wide threats such as C. Pulišić and S. Chukwueze, but none of them have Europa League stats in this dataset yet. They will effectively be starting from zero against a Benfica side led by one of the tournament’s most prolific early performers: V. Pavlidis.

Pavlidis has 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 Europa League appearances for Benfica, plus 1 yellow card but no reds. He also tops both the top scorers and top assists lists for the club in this competition, underlining how central he is to their attacking structure. Milan’s back line – with options like F. Tomori, M. Gabbia and K. De Winter – must find a way to limit his space in the box, or Benfica’s 3.2 goals-per-game average could carry into San Siro.

AC Milan midfield vs Rafa and A. Schjelderup

The midfield battle will be crucial in controlling Benfica’s creative players. Milan can call on experienced technicians such as L. Modrić and R. Loftus-Cheek, plus energetic options like Y. Musah and A. Rabiot, to try to slow Benfica’s transitions.

On the other side, Rafa has 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 Europa League appearances, while A. Schjelderup has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games. Both are among Benfica’s top performers for combined goals and assists. If Milan’s midfield cannot disrupt service into this pair and into Pavlidis, Benfica’s multi-pronged attack – which has seen nine different players contribute goals or assists in Europe – could overwhelm the hosts.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These clubs do not meet often in competitive action, but their most recent clash still offers a small reference point.

• 28 July 2019: AC Milan 0-1 Benfica (International Champions Cup)

AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction

Stats suggest a clash between an untested Milan in this Europa League cycle and a Benfica side already in full attacking rhythm. Benfica’s Europa League “league” form string of LWWDWW shows four wins and one draw in their last five matches in this competition, with only one defeat in six. They have scored 19 and conceded 6 across those 6 games, including a last-five run of 18 scored and 4 conceded.

AC Milan, by contrast, have no recorded Europa League fixtures yet this season, so their comparison indices are naturally flat. The prediction model leans towards Benfica as the likely winner, assigning a 50% chance to an away win, 50% to a draw and effectively 0% to a Milan victory. That points to a strong expectation that Milan will struggle to claim all three points, even at home, against such a free-scoring opponent.

Given the quality in Milan’s squad and home advantage, they should be capable of making this competitive and tightening up defensively. Benfica’s recent record also shows that while they score heavily, they are not invulnerable at the back. A tight encounter with Benfica edging the balance of chances looks the most plausible scenario.

Predicted Score: AC Milan 1-2 Benfica

AC Milan Recent Form

AC Milan have no Europa League form line recorded yet for the 2026 campaign. They enter the League Stage fresh, without any wins, draws or losses in this competition so far and with no goals scored or conceded. That makes them something of a tactical unknown for Benfica, but also means they lack the battle-hardening that comes from Europa League qualifiers or early rounds.

Benfica Recent Form

Benfica’s recent Europa League form is impressive. Their competition form string reads LWWDWW, reflecting 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 6 matches. Over that span they have scored 19 goals (3.2 per game) and conceded 6 (1.0 per game). In their last five matches specifically, they have 18 goals for and just 4 against, highlighting a side that is consistently creating and finishing chances while generally keeping things under control at the back.

AC Milan Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Maignan or P. Terracciano
Defenders: F. Tomori, M. Gabbia, K. De Winter, S. Pavlović, Mario Gila, D. Bartesaghi
Midfielders: L. Modrić, R. Loftus-Cheek, Y. Musah, A. Jashari, S. Vos, P. Estupiñán, Diego Moreira, C. Pulišić, J. Sardo
Forwards: Gonçalo Ramos, S. Chukwueze, A. Saelemaekers, A. Rabiot, M. Valletta, F. Camarda, O. Hutchinson, E. Borsani

Milan have depth across the pitch, with elite experience in goal through M. Maignan and in midfield via L. Modrić and R. Loftus-Cheek. Wide options like C. Pulišić and S. Chukwueze offer direct running and creativity, while Gonçalo Ramos provides a focal point up front. Defensively, Tomori, Gabbia and De Winter give multiple centre-back options. Without Europa League lineups data, the exact shape is uncertain, but a back four with a technically strong midfield and two wide forwards supporting a central striker looks likely.

Benfica Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Trubin
Defenders: C. Lenglet, A. Bah, Tomás Araújo, S. Dahl, A. Circati
Midfielders: João Palhinha, L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea, H. Sudakov, J. Kamiński, F. Aursnes, Manu, G. Prestianni
Forwards: V. Pavlidis, Rafa, A. Schjelderup, D. Lukebakio, J. Durán, Bruma

Benfica’s lineups data indicate they have primarily used a 4-2-3-1 (3 matches) and occasionally a 4-1-3-2 (2 matches) in this Europa League campaign. That suggests a flexible structure with A. Trubin in goal, a back four anchored by C. Lenglet and A. Bah, and a midfield shield likely involving João Palhinha and one of L. Barreiro or E. Barrenechea. Further forward, H. Sudakov and J. Kamiński have chipped in with assists, while Rafa, A. Schjelderup and G. Prestianni support main striker V. Pavlidis. The variety of scorers and creators makes this one of the most balanced attacking units in the competition.

AC Milan Team News

No significant absences reported.

Benfica Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

AC Milan:

• None reported.

Benfica:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: AC Milan vs Benfica

Below are three data-driven betting angles for this Europa League clash. Odds are taken from the Match Winner market across listed bookmakers.

• Result Tip: Benfica or Draw (Double Chance). With the prediction model giving Benfica a 50% chance of victory and the draw also at 50%, Milan are rated at effectively 0% to win. Yet the market makes AC Milan slight favourites at around 2.05–2.14 for the home win (implied roughly 46.7–49.3%), with Benfica out at 3.20–3.49 (around 28.7–31.3%) and the draw 3.40–3.62 (27.6–29.4%). Given Benfica’s Europa League form of LWWDWW and 19 goals in 6 games, backing Benfica not to lose looks sensible value. You can approximate the price by combining the draw and away odds structures (or using a specific Double Chance market where available).
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 goals. Benfica’s Europa League fixtures have been high-scoring: 19 goals for and 6 against in 6 matches (an average of 4.2 total goals per game), with 4 of those 6 games going over the 2.5-goal line. They have scored at least once in every match and conceded in 5 of 6. Milan’s attacking quality at home should contribute to the total, even if their Europa League stats are blank so far. While we do not have explicit over/under odds, the combination of Benfica’s scoring rate and a predicted 2-1 away win supports a lean towards over 2.5 goals at typical market prices.
• Value Tip: V. Pavlidis to score anytime (where priced). Pavlidis has 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 Europa League appearances, leading Benfica’s scoring and featuring across the top scorers, assists and cards lists. Benfica average 3.2 goals per game in this competition and have yet to fail to score. Any anytime-scorer price that does not fully reflect his current output could offer value, especially in a match where Benfica are expected to create chances even as underdogs in the Match Winner odds (3.20–3.49, implying roughly 28.7–31.3% win probability).

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.