York United vs Forge Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

York United welcome league leaders Forge back to York Lions Stadium on 26 July 2026 in a Canadian Premier League Group Stage clash that already feels pivotal for both sides. York are stuck in the lower half of the table, while Forge are threatening to run away at the top, and recent meetings between these two have been brutally one-sided in favour of the visitors.

York sit 6th with 13 points from 11 matches, carrying a negative goal difference and a worrying defensive record. Forge, by contrast, have flown out of the blocks: 31 points from 12 games, just one defeat, and the strongest defence in the division. With York trying to claw their way back towards the playoff picture and Forge looking to extend their cushion at the summit, the stakes are high on both sides of the 905 Derby.

Recent head-to-heads and current form both lean heavily towards Forge, but York’s home scoring rate and the rivalry factor suggest this could still be a competitive fixture rather than a procession.

York United vs Forge Key Stats

• York United are 6th with 13 points from 11 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 22 in the league.
• Forge have dominated recent meetings, including a 4-1 away win at York Lions Stadium on 07 June 2026.
• Across 2026 league statistics, Forge have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches, conceding only 7 goals in total.

York United vs Forge — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 6 vs 1
• Points: 13 vs 31
• Goals For: 14 vs 20
• Goals Against: 22 vs 7
• Clean Sheets: York United 2; Forge 7

In the league table, this is a meeting between a struggling mid-to-lower side and the runaway leaders. York’s 14 goals from 11 games (1.27 per match from standings; 1.3 from wider stats) show they can threaten in attack, especially at home where they average 1.8 goals. However, the 22 goals conceded (2.0 per match) underline why they are marooned in 6th: their defence is leaking heavily, with big defeats already on the record.

Forge, by contrast, combine efficiency at both ends. They have 20 goals scored in 12 league fixtures (around 1.7 per match) and an outstanding defensive record of just 7 conceded (0.6 per game). Their away numbers are particularly impressive: 5 wins from 6 on the road, 12 scored and only 5 allowed. Add a clean-sheet total of 7 and a goal difference of +13 from standings, and it’s clear why they sit top and are strongly favoured here.

York United vs Forge Key Matchups

T. Skublak vs B. Wright

York’s standout attacking threat this season has been T. Skublak. In 10 league appearances (9 starts), he has scored 3 goals, with 5 of his 6 shots on target and an excellent rating of 8.6. He also contributes in build-up play with 35 passes at 71% accuracy and 3 key passes, plus 4 fouls drawn, underlining his ability to occupy defenders and win free-kicks in dangerous areas.

For Forge, Brian Wright offers a different kind of forward profile. Across 12 appearances (7 starts) he has 2 goals and 1 assist, with 8 shots (2 on target) and 6 key passes from 52 total passes at 78% accuracy. He has also won a penalty and converted it, and draws plenty of fouls (7) as he links play and drifts into channels. The battle between Skublak’s penalty-box efficiency and Wright’s more rounded attacking contribution could shape which side makes more of their chances.

A. Aromatario vs L. Singh

In midfield and defence, discipline and duels will be critical. For Forge, A. Aromatario is a key ball-winner and disruptor. In 11 appearances he has made 17 tackles and 12 interceptions, winning 35 of 61 duels. He also completes 224 passes at 80% accuracy. The flip side is his disciplinary record: 6 yellow cards already, the highest in this sample, which could be a risk in a heated rivalry match.

York’s back line will lean heavily on L. Singh. In 6 appearances, all starts, he has logged 180 minutes with 118 passes at an impressive 89% accuracy and 3 key passes from deep, plus 2 shots (1 on target). Defensively, he has contributed tackles, blocks and interceptions, but also 4 yellow cards. If Singh can keep his composure against Forge’s mobile attack while still stepping into midfield with the ball, York’s defensive structure will look far more stable than in recent outings.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This fixture has been one of the Canadian Premier League’s most intense rivalries, but recent history is overwhelmingly in Forge’s favour, both home and away. York have struggled to contain Forge’s attack across league and cup competitions.

• 07 June 2026: York United 1-4 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
• 18 October 2025: Forge 3-0 York United (Canadian Premier League)
• 09 August 2025: York United 1-2 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
• 29 June 2025: Forge 2-2 York United (Canadian Premier League)
• 27 April 2025: York United 2-2 Forge (Canadian Premier League)

York United vs Forge Prediction

All indicators point towards Forge having a major edge. Their recent form is outstanding: their last-five record is described as perfect, with 11 goals scored and only 4 conceded across that stretch. York’s last five, by contrast, have been poor, with just 4 goals scored and 17 conceded, including that 4-1 home defeat to Forge in June.

The prediction model gives Forge a 50% chance of winning and the draw a 50% chance, with York’s win probability rated at 0%. While that may overstate the gap slightly, it underlines how strongly the numbers lean away from a home victory. York’s attack at home can trouble opponents, but their defensive averages (2.4 goals conceded per home game in the broader stats) are a serious concern against a Forge side averaging 2.0 goals per away match.

Expect Forge to control large spells, using their solid defensive base and variety of attacking options to wear York down. York should still create chances, particularly through Skublak and set pieces, but sustaining pressure for 90 minutes against this Forge side looks unlikely.

Predicted Score: York United 1-2 Forge

York United Recent Form

York’s recent form in the league is poor. Their standings run of results reads as a sequence dominated by defeats, with only occasional draws and wins earlier in the campaign. Over 11 league matches, they have just 3 wins and 4 draws, and their recent five-match sample shows heavy defensive frailty, conceding 17 goals while scoring only 4. The broader 2026 run (3 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses) suggests inconsistency, but the latest trend is clearly downward.

Forge Recent Form

Forge arrive in superb shape. Their league form string is packed with wins, with 10 victories, 1 draw and just 1 defeat across 12 matches. Over the last five, they have been close to flawless, scoring 11 and conceding only 4. With strong home and away records, long winning streaks, and a defence that rarely allows more than a single goal, Forge’s momentum is among the best in the Canadian Premier League.

York United Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (grouped by position):
Goalkeeper: I. Pavela
Defenders: L. Singh, J. Córdova, M. Ferrari, C. Guzmán, O. León, R. López, F. Sturing, A. Bergman, Campos Ralston Kai Antonio
Midfielders: O. Bassett, K. Kibato, S. Yeates, J. C. Costa, L. Accettola, Gabriel Bitar, J. Cabral, K. Clarke, A. Morano, A. Umanzor
Forwards: T. Skublak, J. Altobelli, S. Gonzales, B. Badibanga, Shola Jimoh, C. Onyeocha, J. Almagro

York have used both 5-4-1 and 3-4-3 structures in 2026, indicating flexibility between a back three and a back five. Given Forge’s attacking strength, a more conservative shape with extra defenders such as Singh, Sturing and Córdova seems likely, with Skublak leading the line and supported by mobile midfielders like Yeates and Bassett. York’s challenge will be balancing numbers behind the ball with enough support for their main striker to avoid being pinned back for long stretches.

Forge Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: D. Bertaud, D. Bontis, S. Strauf
Defenders: D. Krutzen, D. Nimick, A. Batisse, R. Rama, M. Jevremović, N. Bickford
Midfielders: A. Aromatario, K. Bekker, B. Paton, Molham Babouli, N. Jensen, M. Bourgeois, Z. Bruno, K. Lipovschek, A. Sadek
Forwards: B. Wright, T. Borges, N. Ampomah, I. Oketokoun, M. Filion, H. Massunda, K. Tavernier

Forge have mainly lined up in 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3, occasionally shifting to 3-4-2-1. A back four built around defenders like Nimick and Batisse, screened by midfielders such as Aromatario and Paton, provides a strong spine. In attack, creative players like Borges and Babouli can support Wright or Ampomah up front. Their tactical versatility and depth allow them to adjust in-game, either pressing high or dropping into a compact block before springing forward on the counter.

York United Team News

No significant absences reported.

Forge Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

York United:

• None reported.

Forge:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: York United vs Forge

Below are three data-driven betting angles based on current form, head-to-head trends and statistical profiles.

• Result Tip: Back Forge in the match result market. They top the league with 10 wins from 12, have a strong away record (5 wins from 6), and the prediction model rates their win probability at 50%, with York’s at 0% and the draw at 50%. Combined with their dominant recent H2H record, Forge are the logical side to be on.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. York’s matches average around 3.3 goals (14 scored, 22 conceded in 11 games), while Forge’s average roughly 2.3 (20 scored, 7 conceded in 12). The previous league meeting this season finished 4-1 to Forge, and York’s defence has been porous recently, so at least two goals looks a strong statistical play.
• Value Tip: Forge to win and both teams to score (or Forge win with a goals-based combo). York average 1.8 goals scored at home and have attacking threats in Skublak and supporting forwards, while Forge are prolific away (2.0 goals per game) and defensively solid. The combination of York’s home scoring record and Forge’s superiority suggests a scenario where the visitors win but the hosts still find the net, potentially offering better value than the straight away win.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.