Rasmus Hojlund's Transfer to Napoli: A Costly Misstep for Manchester United
Manchester United may have sold Rasmus Hojlund to Napoli for barely half his current estimated value, according to new data that casts their summer business in a harsh light.
The Danish striker completed a permanent move to the Serie A side for £43.2million after a successful loan spell in Naples last season. Yet figures from the CIES Football Observatory now put his “fair value” at around £110m – a staggering £66.8m more than United ultimately banked.
From Old Trafford hope to Serie A resurgence
When Hojlund arrived at Old Trafford from Atalanta in 2023 in a deal worth up to £72m, he was billed as United’s long-term No.9. At 23, powerful, quick, and raw, he looked like the kind of forward a rebuilt United could be built around.
There were glimpses. In his first Premier League campaign he scored 10 goals in 30 appearances, enough to suggest there was something to work with even if the team around him remained inconsistent.
Then came the collapse.
United’s 2024/25 season was a disaster, ending with the club marooned in 15th place. Hojlund’s form sank with the rest of the squad: just four league goals in 32 games. His strike partner Joshua Zirkzee managed only two in 24. The numbers told the story of a forward line that never clicked and a club drifting badly.
Hojlund wanted to stay and fight. He made it clear he was ready to battle for his place at the “Theatre of Dreams”. The club chose another route.
The Napoli gamble that paid off – for them
United sanctioned a loan to Napoli for 2025/26, but crucially agreed to an obligation to buy set at £43.2m, dependent on certain conditions. It was a relatively modest figure in today’s market for a young international striker, yet United were prepared to lock it in.
Napoli wasted no time turning that into a bargain.
In Serie A, Hojlund finally looked like the player United thought they had signed. He hit 12 goals and supplied six assists in the league alone, leading the line with conviction and confidence. The conditions in the deal were met, and Gli Azzurri moved quickly to trigger the permanent transfer.
From their perspective, it was textbook business: a young striker, already proven in Italy, secured for a fixed fee before his value could spike again.
CIES valuation twists the knife
The sting for United comes with the latest valuation from the CIES Football Observatory. Their model, which factors in a player’s age, performances, economic rights, add-ons, and inflation over the past two windows, pegs Hojlund’s current worth at around £110m.
They also allow for a 7.5% margin either side of that number, depending on the financial muscle of the most likely buyers. Even at the lower end of that range, United still appear to have undersold significantly.
CIES do not take buy-out clauses into account, so the figure is a clean reflection of market value rather than contract quirks. Against that backdrop, the £43.2m Napoli will ultimately pay looks less like a shrewd exit and more like a cut-price release.
United’s attacking void and a ticking clock
All of this unfolds while United still look short up front.
INEOS’ new regime watched a blunt United side lose 2-0 away to newly-promoted Hull City on Saturday, a performance that offered almost nothing in terms of attacking threat. The lack of a focal point, the absence of a reliable goalscorer, was glaring.
Funds from the Hojlund sale could yet be recycled into a new striker before next month’s transfer deadline, but that is not currently understood to be the club’s top priority. The focus remains on adding another central midfielder and a left-back, even as the forward line misfires.
Hojlund, meanwhile, is entering his early prime in a league that already suits him, with a growing body of work and a valuation that suggests Europe’s elite will be watching closely.
United once believed he could be their long-term No.9. Now the question is whether they have just watched a future superstar walk away at a discount, at the very moment they need one most.
