Gameweek 38: Key Players and Rotation Risks
The final day always brings chaos. This year, it also brings a familiar fear: rotation.
With European spots and relegation still on the line, FPL managers are trying to read minds, second-guess press conferences and squeeze one last green arrow out of a long season. The questions are the same everywhere: who actually plays, who rests, and is it really worth ripping up a settled squad for a late punt?
Who still has something to play for?
Strip it back and the picture is clearer than the noise suggests.
The real jeopardy sits around the European places – sixth to eighth – and in the scrap to avoid the drop between West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. That competitive edge should keep Liverpool, Bournemouth, Brighton and Hove Albion, Chelsea, Sunderland, Brentford, West Ham and Spurs honest with their selections.
They are unlikely to indulge in mass rotation. That does not automatically make them the best hunting ground for FPL points – “on the beach” fixtures can be just as explosive – but it does mean your existing assets from those clubs are, in most cases, safe enough to back for a start.
The real tension lies with the title heavyweights and the usual late-season curveballs.
Arsenal: Stars training alone and attackers on the move
Mikel Arteta kept his cards close in front of the cameras, but the training ground told a more intriguing story.
David Raya, Bukayo Saka and William Saliba all worked individually on Thursday, away from the main group. All three could still start on Sunday. Yet among that trio, Saka and Saliba feel the likeliest to see managed minutes or even a full rest.
There is logic to Arsenal protecting Saka. Noni Madueke did not even get off the bench against Burnley; this feels a natural moment to hand him proper minutes against Palace and keep Saka in reserve for a late cameo if required.
Raya is different. He has already secured the Golden Glove, but he is still chasing the club record for clean sheets in a single season. That personal milestone gives him a strong case to keep his place.
Up front, the picture blurs. Viktor Gyokeres may start, but Gabriel Jesus or even Kai Havertz could easily lead the line. However Arteta shuffles it, this does not scream “high-scoring” from an Arsenal perspective.
For FPL, the message is blunt: this is not the week to buy into Arsenal’s attack. If you have free transfers, moving their forwards on is perfectly reasonable. If you own both Saka and Gyokeres, Saka is the one to lose first.
Manchester City: One last show, one last risk
At the Etihad, emotion hangs over everything.
Pep Guardiola is widely expected to confirm that this will be his final game in charge. The club opens its new stand, 7,000 extra fans piling into a stadium that has seen so many title deciders and statement wins. The players will want a performance to match the occasion.
Erling Haaland sits at the heart of the FPL debate. He has a World Cup ahead of him this summer, which raises the spectre of managed minutes. A full rest is possible, but a start with an early substitution feels more likely. If you own him, it is a brave call to sell when a farewell Etihad fixture threatens goals.
Phil Foden should start, which muddies the waters for Rayan Cherki. His minutes look far less secure. Nico O’Reilly is trickier to read – his role remains unpredictable, much like Antoine Semenyo’s.
The fixture itself carries high-scoring potential, with Aston Villa still riding the emotional high of their midweek Europa League win. Fatigue and loosened structure could open the game up.
In that context, keeping Haaland and O’Reilly makes sense. Cherki and Semenyo, by contrast, are expendable.
Aston Villa: The rotation you can see coming
If there is one side where you do not need to overthink it, it is Aston Villa.
After their European exertions, mass rotation is on the cards. From an FPL standpoint, Villa assets are obvious sells or, at the very least, bench fodder. If you are still clinging to them in Gameweek 38, you already know the risk you are taking.
Manchester United and Liverpool: Big names, clear calls
Manchester United’s picture is relatively straightforward. Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo are all expected to start. Casemiro, as Michael Carrick has already confirmed, will miss out. Beyond that, FPL interest in United is minimal.
Liverpool, by contrast, should go strong.
Dominik Szoboszlai and Virgil van Dijk are set to start. Mohamed Salah should also be in the XI, depending on what Arne Slot reveals in his press conference, but there is every chance of one more full-blooded outing from the Egyptian.
Outside the obvious names, Dominic Calvert-Lewin stands out. He should lead the line and offers a neat, low-ownership route for those chasing.
Hits, benches and the madness of the final day
This is where many managers lose their nerve.
Taking hits on the final day to “guess” rotation, without reliable team news, is a dangerous game. The final round is notorious for freak line-ups, early injuries, bizarre substitutions and late goals. Your bench exists for exactly this kind of chaos.
If you can react to a confirmed team leak, that is a different conversation. But burning points purely on hunches about who might be “more nailed” is rarely worth it. Let your squad – and your bench – do some of the heavy lifting.
Building the Differential Free Hit XI
For those on a Free Hit, or simply looking for a late surge, the fun lies in going where your rivals will not.
Defence: Backing the desperate
West Ham and Spurs are the defensive units to target if you are shopping at the back.
Both have something tangible to fight for and both offer defenders with attacking bite. Pedro Porro brings his familiar threat from advanced positions, while Konstantinos Mavropanos offers set-piece danger and a route into a defence that should be fully engaged.
John Stones is another intriguing pick. With this likely to be his final game for Manchester City, he has every chance of starting and anchoring the back line on a day charged with emotion.
Midfield: One last swing
Jack Hinshelwood has quietly become one of the most dangerous midfielders in recent weeks, leading the way for big chances over the last six Gameweeks. With Casemiro rested, Brighton should find space and opportunities, and Hinshelwood is perfectly placed to exploit them.
Then there is Salah. One last hurrah for the FPL king? He remains a strong captaincy option, but for those really swinging, Hinshelwood might even edge him as a more daring armband shout.
Burnley’s clash with Wolverhampton Wanderers promises a different kind of entertainment. Neither side will want to finish bottom, which could loosen the game into an open contest. Zian Flemming would have been the preferred pick, but with forward slots too valuable, Jaidon Anthony steps in as the midfield alternative – a budget enabler with upside in a fixture that could catch fire.
Morgan Gibbs-White rounds out the midfield picture. Nottingham Forest showed against United that their appetite for defending has waned, but at home they still carry real attacking punch. Against a Bournemouth side ranked in the bottom five for expected goals conceded on the road, Gibbs-White has the platform to deliver.
Forwards: Penalties, form and farewell goals
Up front, the brief is simple: minutes, penalties and motivation.
Richarlison and Jarrod Bowen tick all three boxes. Both are on spot-kicks, both regularly play 90 minutes, and both are central to their clubs’ hopes of staying up. When the pressure spikes, managers lean on their talismen. FPL managers should, too.
Alongside them, William Osula offers a more left-field route. He sits in the top three for expected goals over the last six Gameweeks and walks into a Craven Cottage clash shaped by off-field uncertainty. With Marco Silva’s departure looming, Fulham’s final outing could easily turn into a wild, goal-heavy affair. Osula is well placed to profit.
And with that, the 2025/26 FPL season closes its book.
The dilemmas, the punts, the late-night tinkering – all of it funnels into this one last Gameweek. The only question left is whether you play it safe and protect what you have, or roll the dice one more time and chase the kind of final-day surge you will talk about all summer.
