Burnley vs Wolves Preview: Relegation Clash at Turf Moor

Burnley and Wolves meet at Turf Moor on 24 May 2026 in a relegation dead-rubber that still carries betting interest, with both sides already confirmed to drop to the Championship. Burnley come in 19th on 21 points (4-9-24, 37:74), Wolves 20th on 19 points (3-10-24, 26:67). The market sees this as almost a coin flip, but the official prediction model leans towards the visitors avoiding defeat.

Looking at recent form and performance indices, neither team inspires confidence, but Wolves are marginally ahead. Over their last five, Burnley’s form index is just 7%, with 4 goals scored and 11 conceded (0.8 for, 2.2 against per game). Wolves post a 13% form index, scoring 2 and conceding 9 (0.4 for, 1.8 against per game). Burnley have the stronger attack rating in the comparison (67% vs 33%), but Wolves edge the defensive comparison (55% vs 45%) and overall form (67% vs 33%).

Season-long data confirms both as among the league’s weakest. From standings, Burnley’s 37 goals for and 74 against in 37 matches underline a porous back line (2.0 conceded per game) and only moderate scoring (1.0 per game). Wolves are even more blunt in attack with 26 goals (0.7 per game) but slightly better defensively at 67 conceded (1.8 per game). Crucially for this fixture, Wolves’ away record from the table is dreadful: 0 wins, 5 draws, 13 losses, 7:33 goals. Burnley at home are poor but not hopeless: 2 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses, 17:28.

The prediction engine’s deeper comparison is interesting: the Poisson-based distribution gives Burnley a 70% edge versus 30% for Wolves, but the overall “total” comparison slightly favours Wolves (54.2% vs 45.8%). That suggests Burnley generate more raw scoring probability in some models, while broader context (form, H2H, defensive metrics) tilts towards Wolves being more reliable not to lose.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data, excluding friendlies for competitive context, shows a mixed picture. On 26 October 2025 in the Premier League at Molineux Stadium, Burnley beat Wolves 3-2 after a 2-2 half-time scoreline. On 28 August 2024 in the League Cup 2nd Round, also at Molineux, Wolves won 2-0. At Turf Moor on 2 April 2024 in the Premier League, the sides drew 1-1. On 5 December 2023 in the Premier League at Molineux, Wolves won 1-0. Going further back in Premier League play: on 24 April 2022 at Turf Moor, Burnley won 1-0; on 1 December 2021 at Molineux, it finished 0-0; on 25 April 2021 at Molineux, Burnley won 4-0; on 21 December 2020 at Turf Moor, Burnley won 2-1; and on 15 July 2020 at Turf Moor, it ended 1-1. There is also a 3-0 Wolves win in a club friendly on 9 July 2022 at Sir Jack Hayward Training Ground, but that should not weigh heavily for this Premier League clash.

Prediction Model

The official prediction model assigns win probabilities of 10% Burnley, 45% draw, 45% Wolves, and explicitly advises “Double chance: draw or Wolves”. That aligns with Wolves being rated the “winner” in the prediction (with a “Win or draw” comment), even if the bookmakers price the 1X2 more evenly. Across major books, home odds cluster around 2.40–2.56, the draw around 3.40–3.66, and Wolves around 2.60–2.84. That implies the market is slightly more optimistic about Burnley than the model is, making the away side (or their double chance) potentially value.

Given both teams’ low-scoring profiles and the predictions goals line set effectively under 1.5 for each side, this points to a tight, cagey game. Wolves’ inability to win away is a concern, but Burnley’s overall fragility and the model’s 90% implied chance that Burnley do not win suggest siding against the hosts.

Betting verdict: the data-backed play is to follow the official advice and take Wolves on the double chance (X2: draw or Wolves). For those seeking a correct-score angle consistent with the low-goal expectations and probabilities, 0-0 or 1-1 are the most logical scoreline leans.