Forge vs York United Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Forge welcome York United to Tim Hortons Field on 5 September 2026 in Canadian Premier League Group Stage action, with the hosts pushing hard at the top end of the table and the visitors battling to stay clear of the bottom. With Forge sitting second on 41 points and York United down in seventh on 18, this fixture has clear implications at both ends of the standings.

Forge have built their campaign on a strong defensive record and consistent home form, while York United arrive with one of the leakiest defences in the league but some dangerous attacking weapons. Recent meetings between Forge and York United have been high-scoring and largely one-sided in Forge’s favour, adding extra intrigue for prediction and betting-focused fans looking at this matchup.

With both sides familiar foes and plenty of recent head-to-head data to lean on, this Forge vs York United preview will break down key stats, form, player matchups and betting tips ahead of kick-off at Tim Hortons Field.

Forge vs York United Key Stats

• Forge are 2nd in the Canadian Premier League with 41 points from 19 matches, scoring 29 and conceding just 14.
• Forge have dominated recent H2H meetings, winning 4-1 away at York United on 7 June 2026 and 3-1 away on 26 July 2026.
• Season statistics show Forge with 9 clean sheets from 19 matches, while York United have just 2 clean sheets from 17.

Forge vs York United — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 2 vs 7
• Points: 41 vs 18
• Goals For: 29 vs 22
• Goals Against: 14 vs 37
• Clean Sheets: Forge 9 vs York United 2

Across 19 matches, Forge have been one of the league’s most balanced sides: 13 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with a +15 goal difference. They average 1.5 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded per game, and their home record (7 wins from 9, just 5 goals conceded) underlines why Tim Hortons Field is a difficult trip for any opponent.

York United’s numbers tell a very different story. From 17 matches they have 4 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats, with a -15 goal difference. They score a respectable 1.3 goals per game but concede 2.2 on average, the worst defensive record among the sides in the current dataset. Away from home they have just 1 win in 9, with 7 goals scored and 18 conceded. On paper, this is a top-two defence against a bottom-end back line, which heavily shapes expectations for this clash.

Forge vs York United Key Matchups

D. Nimick vs T. Skublak

At the heart of Forge’s defensive strength is defender Daniel Nimick. He has started all 17 of his appearances, logging 720 minutes with a strong rating of 7.48. Beyond his defensive work — 8 tackles, 4 blocks and 8 interceptions, plus 18 duels won from 26 — he also contributes offensively with 3 goals, including 2 from the penalty spot, and 3 key passes from 388 total passes at 89% accuracy. His ability to step into midfield and threaten from set pieces makes him a two-way asset.

York United’s main attacking threat is forward T. Skublak. In 15 appearances (13 starts), he has scored 4 goals and added 1 assist, with 14 shots and 7 on target. He also provides link-up play with 90 passes and 5 key passes, and he is heavily involved physically, winning 35 of 66 duels. However, his 6 yellow cards highlight a combative style that can lead to disciplinary risk. The direct battle between Nimick’s aerial and positional dominance and Skublak’s work rate and penalty-box presence will be central to whether York can trouble Forge’s back line.

T. Borges vs B. Badibanga

For Forge, creative responsibility often falls on midfielder Tristan Borges. Across 18 appearances (16 starts), he has 1 goal and 3 assists, but his underlying numbers are more impressive: 157 passes with 17 key passes at 80% accuracy, plus 11 shots (4 on target). Borges’ ability to find pockets of space and deliver the final ball makes him a key conduit in Forge’s attack, and his 13 tackles and 6 interceptions show he contributes off the ball as well.

York United’s main creator is midfielder Béni Badibanga. In 13 appearances, he has 3 assists, with 105 passes and 10 key passes at 81% accuracy. He wins 22 of 34 duels and has drawn 12 fouls, underlining his ability to carry the ball and force defenders into mistakes. The creative duel between Borges and Badibanga — who can supply more quality service into the final third — could decide which side controls the tempo and chance creation.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have met frequently in league and cup play in recent seasons, with Forge generally having the upper hand and several high-scoring encounters along the way.

• 26 July 2026: York United 1-3 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
• 7 June 2026: York United 1-4 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
• 18 October 2025: Forge 3-0 York United (Canadian Premier League)
• 9 August 2025: York United 1-2 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
• 29 June 2025: Forge 2-2 York United (Canadian Premier League)

Forge vs York United Prediction

Stats suggest Forge should control this game, especially at home. Their defensive record is elite by league standards, with only 14 goals conceded in 19 matches and 9 clean sheets. York United, by contrast, concede heavily both home and away, with 37 goals against in 17 matches and an average of 2.0 conceded per away game. The head-to-head trend is also firmly in Forge’s favour, with back-to-back away wins by two or more goals in 2026.

The prediction model gives Forge a 45% chance of winning, the draw also at 45%, and just a 10% chance for a York United victory. That points to Forge as clear favourites but leaves room for a stalemate if York can tighten up defensively and rely on the attacking contributions of Skublak and Badibanga. However, given Forge’s home strength and York’s defensive fragility, a narrow home win looks the most plausible outcome, with Forge’s structure and set-piece threat likely to make the difference.

Predicted Score: Forge 2-1 York United

Forge Recent Form

Forge’s recent form in the league is mixed but still broadly positive, with a sequence of results that includes several wins but also some recent defeats (form string: LWWLL in the latest five league outings). Over the wider sample of 19 matches, they have 13 wins and only 4 losses, and their last-five performance indicators show balanced attacking and defensive numbers: 6 goals scored and 6 conceded, averaging 1.2 for and 1.2 against. Even when they are not at their best, they remain difficult to beat, especially at home.

York United Recent Form

York United’s recent form is inconsistent, reflected in a latest five-match league pattern of LDWDL. Over 17 matches, their record of 4 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats underlines a side that struggles to string together positive runs. In their last five games they have scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) but conceded 12 (2.4 per match), highlighting a persistent defensive weakness. While they can pose a threat going forward, particularly in bursts, their inability to keep things tight at the back remains a major concern heading into a trip to Forge.

Forge Possible Starting Lineup

GK: D. Bertaud; Defenders: M. Jevremović, D. Krutzen, D. Nimick, R. Rama; Midfielders: A. Aromatario, K. Bekker, Molham Babouli; Forwards: T. Borges, N. Ampomah, B. Wright.

Forge have a deep and experienced squad spine. At the back, the combination of Jevremović, Krutzen, Nimick and Rama offers aerial strength and ball progression, supported by midfielders like Aromatario and Bekker who can control possession and shield the defence. In attack, Borges provides creativity from wide or central positions, while Ampomah and Wright offer pace and penalty-box presence. The team has shown flexibility, using formations such as 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, and can adapt between a possession-based approach and more direct transitions depending on game state.

York United Possible Starting Lineup

GK: I. Pavela; Defenders: J. Córdova, C. Guzmán, O. León, L. Singh; Midfielders: O. Bassett, K. Kibato, Gabriel Bitar, B. Badibanga; Forwards: J. Altobelli, T. Skublak.

York United’s likely setup leans on experience in defence with Córdova, Guzmán and León, and a midfield mix of work rate and creativity through Bassett, Kibato and Bitar. Further forward, Badibanga will be key to linking play and providing final passes, while Altobelli and Skublak carry the main goal threat. York have used multiple shapes this season, including 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1, but may opt for a more conservative structure away to Forge, looking to counter through their front line and wide players.

Forge Team News

No significant absences reported.

York United Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Forge:

• None reported.

York United:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Forge vs York United

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Forge in the double chance (Forge or Draw). With a 45% win probability for Forge and 45% for the draw versus only 10% for York United, plus Forge’s dominant H2H record and superior defensive stats, the home side avoiding defeat looks a strong base play.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Forge average 1.5 goals scored per match and York United concede 2.2 per game, while recent H2H meetings have finished 3-1 and 4-1 to Forge. That attacking and defensive profile strongly supports at least two goals in the match.
• Value Tip: Forge to score at least 2 goals. Their season average of 1.5 goals per game rises against weaker defences, and York United’s away record (18 goals conceded in 9 matches) suggests they struggle to contain stronger opponents. With creators like Borges and finishers such as Nimick from set pieces and forwards like Ampomah and Wright, Forge are well placed to find multiple goals.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.