CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction: Preview and Key Stats

CF Pachuca welcome Guadalajara Chivas to Estadio Miguel Hidalgo on 29 August 2026 in Liga MX Apertura - 6, with both sides heading into this clash on very different trajectories. Pachuca are languishing in 14th place with just 4 points from their first 5 matches, while Chivas have started strongly and sit 4th on 10 points.

For Pachuca, this is already close to a must-win at home. They have lost both of their home games so far and need to turn Estadio Miguel Hidalgo back into a fortress if they are to climb towards the Apertura play-off spots. Chivas, by contrast, are targeting another statement result on the road to consolidate their position in the top four and keep pace with the early leaders.

With recent head-to-head history firmly in Chivas’ favour and both teams showing decent attacking numbers, this CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction points towards a tense, tactical battle where small details in both boxes could decide the outcome.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Key Stats

• CF Pachuca are 14th in Liga MX Apertura with 4 points from 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 7.
• Guadalajara Chivas have won each of the last four Liga MX meetings against CF Pachuca, including a 2-0 home win on 10 January 2026.
• Across 5 Apertura 2026 games, Pachuca average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Chivas average 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 14 vs 4
• Points: 4 vs 10
• Goals For: 7 vs 8
• Goals Against: 7 vs 5
• Clean Sheets: CF Pachuca 1 vs Guadalajara Chivas 2 (season statistics)

The standings underline the contrast between the two clubs’ starts. Pachuca have taken just one win, one draw and three defeats from their first five fixtures. Their goal difference is neutral (7 scored, 7 conceded), but the lack of points and especially their 0–0–2 home record (3 scored, 5 conceded) is a concern.

Chivas, on the other hand, have three wins, one draw and only one defeat from five matches. They have been solid away from home with 1 win and 1 draw in two road games, scoring twice and conceding just once. Their +3 goal difference and 10-point haul place them firmly in the early play-off picture, with the standings description already flagging them for the Apertura quarter-final play-offs if they maintain this level.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Key Matchups

S. Rondón vs R. Alvarado

CF Pachuca’s main attacking threat is veteran striker S. Rondón. He has started all 5 matches, logging 403 minutes and scoring 5 of Pachuca’s 7 league goals so far. His 15 shots (6 on target) and a strong rating of 7.52 highlight how central he is to Pachuca’s offensive output. He has also converted 1 penalty and contributed 5 key passes, underlining his all-round importance in the final third.

Opposite him, R. Alvarado is emerging as Chivas’ creative and attacking hub. In 5 appearances and 360 minutes, he has scored 2 goals, but his influence goes well beyond finishing: 225 passes with 11 key passes, an impressive 89% passing accuracy, and a 7.93 rating make him one of the standout performers in Liga MX so far. His 7 shots (5 on target) and 9 successful dribbles from 16 attempts show he can both carry the ball and create chances. Containing Alvarado’s influence between the lines will be vital if Pachuca are to keep Chivas quiet.

O. Idrissi vs Á. Sepúlveda

For Pachuca, O. Idrissi provides creativity from midfield. He has started all 5 games, playing 411 minutes, and leads the team with 2 assists. With 149 passes at 83% accuracy and 6 key passes, plus 10 successful dribbles from 23 attempts, Idrissi is the main link between midfield and attack. His ability to draw fouls (9) and carry the ball into dangerous areas will be crucial in unlocking a Chivas defence that has conceded just 5 goals.

On the Chivas side, Á. Sepúlveda has had a different type of impact. He has made 4 appearances (only 1 start) and played 78 minutes, but he already has 1 red card to his name. With 2 tackles and 16 duels contested, he brings physicality, yet his dismissal shows he can be a disciplinary risk. How he is used—either as an impact substitute or left on the bench—could influence the game’s intensity and the number of fouls around Pachuca’s box.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent head-to-head record is heavily tilted towards Guadalajara Chivas, who have dominated this fixture in Liga MX in the last few years, both home and away.

• 10 January 2026: Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
• 3 November 2025: CF Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
• 23 February 2025: Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
• 19 October 2024: CF Pachuca 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
• 13 April 2024: CF Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction

Stats suggest Chivas arrive as clear favourites. The prediction model gives Pachuca only a 10% chance of victory, with the draw and away win each rated at 45%. That aligns with the comparison indices, where Chivas lead strongly in form, defence and overall strength, and also with the H2H numbers which are overwhelmingly in their favour in recent seasons.

Pachuca’s main hope lies in their attacking potential: 1.4 goals per game and a prolific S. Rondón mean they are capable of scoring against anyone. However, their home defensive record (5 conceded in 2 games) and the pattern of conceding a significant share of goals late in matches are worrying against a Chivas side that scores heavily between minutes 61–75.

Chivas are well-balanced, averaging 1.6 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded, with two clean sheets in five games. Their away record is solid and they have consistently found a way to edge tight encounters against Pachuca, often by a single goal. Expect Chivas to control long spells of possession through R. Alvarado, while Pachuca look to strike through quick transitions and set pieces.

Predicted Score: CF Pachuca 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas

CF Pachuca Recent Form

Pachuca’s recent form is mixed-to-poor. They have just one win in their last five matches, alongside one draw and three defeats. The form string “DLLLW” in the standings reflects a side that started with a run of losses before a recent upturn, but their home performances remain particularly concerning with two straight defeats at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.

Guadalajara Chivas Recent Form

Chivas arrive in strong shape. Their “WWDWL” form line indicates three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five, with only one loss overall this Apertura. They have been especially efficient in attack, scoring in four of five games and showing resilience away from home with an unbeaten road record so far.

CF Pachuca Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players: C. Moreno (GK); Eduardo Bauermann, M. Isaís, A. Mozo, F. Venegas (Defenders); C. Rivera, R. Pizarro, O. Idrissi, Kenedy (Midfielders); S. Rondón, I. Hernández (Forwards).

Pachuca have typically lined up in a 4-2-3-1 shape this Apertura, as indicated by their season statistics. That suggests a back four built around Eduardo Bauermann and M. Isaís, with full-backs such as A. Mozo and F. Venegas providing width. In midfield, the double pivot could feature C. Rivera—who brings defensive bite and passing range—alongside a more creative presence like R. Pizarro, while O. Idrissi and Kenedy support S. Rondón from wide or central attacking roles. The system is designed to feed Rondón early crosses and through balls, but it also requires defensive discipline from the wingers to protect a back line that has looked vulnerable at home.

Guadalajara Chivas Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players: J. Rangel (GK); M. Tapias, B. González, J. Castillo (Defenders); L. Romo (Midfield screen); R. Alvarado, E. Álvarez, O. Govea, B. Gutiérrez (Midfielders); R. Marín, J. Pérez (Forwards).

Chivas have favoured a 3-1-4-2 setup in four matches this season. That points to a back three anchored by M. Tapias, with B. González and J. Castillo either side, protected by a holding midfielder such as L. Romo. Ahead of them, a fluid line of four—featuring R. Alvarado and E. Álvarez—provides creativity and width, while a front two led by R. Marín and J. Pérez offers movement and finishing. This shape gives Chivas numerical superiority in midfield and allows Alvarado to drift into pockets where he can dictate play, which could stretch a Pachuca side that has sometimes struggled to defend transitions.

CF Pachuca Team News

No significant absences reported.

Guadalajara Chivas Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CF Pachuca:

• None reported.

Guadalajara Chivas:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Guadalajara Chivas in the “Draw No Bet” or double-chance market. The prediction model rates Pachuca’s win chance at only 10%, with Chivas and the draw each at 45%. Match-winner odds for Chivas range roughly from 2.20 to 2.45, implying an approximate 40–45% chance of an away win, which is consistent with their superior form and dominant recent H2H record.
• Goals Tip: Consider “Under 3.5 goals”. Pachuca’s games average 2.8 total goals (1.4 for, 1.4 against), while Chivas’ average 2.6 (1.6 for, 1.0 against). Many of their recent direct meetings have been decided by one or two goals, with only one of the last five exceeding two total goals. Given Chivas’ solid defence and Pachuca’s reliance on Rondón, a relatively tight scoreline looks likely. Use the available total-goals odds band closest to this line from your bookmaker of choice.
• Value Tip: Look at S. Rondón in the anytime goalscorer market. He has 5 goals in 5 appearances and has taken 15 shots, including 1 successful penalty. Even against a strong Chivas back line, his volume of chances and set-piece duties give him a decent probability of scoring. Compare his anytime price with the match odds: if his goal odds translate to an implied probability significantly below his current scoring rate, that could represent value.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.