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Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction: Key Stats, Team News, and Betting Tips

This UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round second leg in Celje sets up a fascinating clash between Celje and Ararat-Armenia. The tie moves to Slovenia after a tight first meeting in Yerevan, and with group-stage dreams on the line, the stakes could not be higher.

The match will be played in Celje on 11 August 2026, with the hosts needing a response after a 2-1 defeat away from home on 4 August 2026. Celje have shown they can score freely in this qualifying campaign, but defensive leaks have been a recurring issue. Ararat-Armenia, meanwhile, arrive with a narrow advantage and a strong home record in the competition, but their away form has been far less convincing.

Both sides have been involved in open, attacking games so far in Champions League qualifying, which should appeal to bettors and neutrals alike. With progression to the next round at stake, expect a high-intensity encounter where Celje must balance aggression with control, while Ararat-Armenia look to manage the game and exploit spaces on the break.

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Key Stats

  • Celje have scored 7 and conceded 7 across 3 Champions League matches this season, averaging 2.3 goals both for and against per game.
  • Ararat-Armenia have won both previous European meetings with Celje: 2-1 on 4 August 2026 in the Champions League and 1-0 (after extra time) on 24 September 2020 in the Europa League.
  • In Champions League 2026 qualifying, Ararat-Armenia have kept 2 clean sheets in 5 matches, both at home, while failing to keep a single clean sheet away.

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: Not available vs Not available
  • Points: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals For: Celje 7 (in 3 matches) vs Ararat-Armenia 9 (in 5 matches)
  • Goals Against: Celje 7 (in 3 matches) vs Ararat-Armenia 6 (in 5 matches)
  • Clean Sheets: Celje 0 vs Ararat-Armenia 2 (Champions League 2026 statistics)

There is no formal group-table or league-style standings for this qualifying tie, but the tournament statistics paint a clear picture of contrasting profiles. Celje’s three Champions League fixtures so far have been wide open: one win, one draw and one loss, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their home outing produced a 3-2 victory, underlining both their attacking threat and defensive fragility.

Ararat-Armenia have played five Champions League matches in this campaign, winning three and losing two. All three victories came at home, with a goals record of 6 scored and just 1 conceded in Yerevan. Away from home, however, they have lost both matches, conceding 5 goals and scoring 3. Over the full sample, they average 1.8 goals for and 1.2 against per game, suggesting a slightly more balanced side than Celje, but one that is clearly more comfortable on home soil.

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Key Matchups

Celje attack unit vs Sandro Lima

Celje’s goals have been well spread in this qualifying run, with 7 scored in 3 games and no single standout scorer in the Champions League top scorers list. Their strength lies in collective attacking patterns, highlighted by an average of 3.0 goals per home match and a strong record of never failing to score so far.

Ararat-Armenia’s main attacking reference in this competition is Sandro Lima. The 35-year-old attacker has made 5 appearances (all as a starter) and scored 1 goal. Although his minutes total (79) suggests he has often been withdrawn early, his presence as a focal point remains important. Celje’s back line, which concedes an average of 2.3 goals per game, must contain Lima’s movement and physical presence if they are to overturn the deficit.

Zidane Banjaqui vs Celje midfield

Zidane Banjaqui has been a key creative option for Ararat-Armenia. In 5 Champions League appearances (2 starts), he has registered 1 assist, underlining his ability to provide the final pass in limited minutes (18 recorded). His disciplinary record — 2 yellow cards — also shows he plays on the edge, pressing aggressively in midfield.

Celje’s midfield, featuring players such as M. Kvesić, S. Sešlar and A. Kotnik from the squad list, will need to control Banjaqui’s influence between the lines. If they can cut off supply to Sandro Lima and limit Banjaqui’s time on the ball, Celje’s chances of turning the tie around increase significantly. Conversely, if Banjaqui finds pockets of space, Ararat-Armenia’s transitional threat could decide the contest.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have a short but meaningful European history, with Ararat-Armenia having the upper hand in both previous encounters. Each meeting has been tight on the scoreboard, but the Armenian club has consistently found a way to progress.

  • 4 August 2026: Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje (UEFA Champions League)
  • 24 September 2020: Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Celje (after extra time) (UEFA Europa League)

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction

Stats suggest a clash of profiles: Celje are free-scoring but porous, while Ararat-Armenia are more controlled, especially at home, but vulnerable away. The comparison indices lean toward the visitors overall — Ararat-Armenia lead the form index 69 vs 31, attack 56 vs 44, and defense 54 vs 46, with a total comparison of 58.2 vs 41.8. The Poisson index also favours Celje slightly (63 vs 37), reflecting their strong attacking numbers at home.

However, the outright predictions percent figures give Celje just a 10% chance of winning, with a 45% chance of a draw and 45% for an Ararat-Armenia victory. That points to the Armenian side being more likely to avoid defeat and protect their aggregate advantage, even if the market odds heavily favour a Celje home win on the night.

Given Celje’s need to chase the game and their habit of both scoring and conceding, a high-tempo match with goals at both ends is likely. Ararat-Armenia’s away frailties suggest they may not keep a clean sheet, but their superior head-to-head record and more balanced tournament form should allow them to do enough over 90 minutes.

Predicted Score: Celje 1-1 Ararat-Armenia

Celje Recent Form

In Champions League 2026 qualifying, Celje’s recent form reads as one win, one draw and one defeat from 3 matches. They have been involved in consistently high-scoring games, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. At home, they have won their only match 3-2, underlining a strong attacking output but ongoing defensive concerns.

Ararat-Armenia Recent Form

Ararat-Armenia’s recent Champions League form is mixed but generally positive, with 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 matches, following a WLWLW sequence. All three victories have come at home, where they have scored 6 and conceded just 1. Away from home, they have lost both matches, conceding 5 goals and scoring 3, which keeps this tie very much alive despite their first-leg win.

Celje Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (selection from squad):

Goalkeepers: Ž. Frelih, S. Sluga, Žan-Luk Leban, L. Kolar
Defenders: Ł. Bejger, David Castro, A. Dionkou, L. Koutris, P. Širvys, A. Tutyškinas, G. Vodeb, N. Vukasović, D. Vukliševič, I. Ćalušić
Midfielders: M. Zabukovnik, Papa Mustapha Daniel, D. Hrka, F. Jevšenak, M. Kvesić, T. Letonja, R. Požeg, J. Pranjić, S. Sešlar, M. Avdyli, Y. Dukuly, M. Ivanšek, V. Tusha, B. Verbič
Forwards: A. Kotnik, A. Kucys, M. Poplatnik, D. Suhovrsnik

Celje have used a variety of systems in this Champions League campaign — 4-4-2, 4-3-3 and 3-4-3 — each once across their three matches. That tactical flexibility suggests the coach may again adjust the shape to chase goals while trying to protect a vulnerable back line that has yet to keep a clean sheet. Expect an attacking setup with width from players like B. Verbič and A. Kotnik, supported by a rotating cast of forwards such as M. Poplatnik and A. Kucys.

Ararat-Armenia Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (selection from squad):

Goalkeepers: S. Badalyan, Joao Bravim, A. Nersesyan
Defenders: E. Grigoryan, K. Hovhannisyan, Junior Julio, Luís Felipe, A. Malis, Hugo Oliveira, Bruno Pereira, Bruno Wilson
Midfielders: A. Tera, A. Ambartsumyan, M. Ayvazyan, J. Balanta, Zidane Banjaqui, M. Carlier, M. Hovhannisyan, K. Muradyan, E. Poghosyan, Franҫa, A. Serobyan, Z. Shaghoyan
Forwards: P. Ayongo, A. Eloyan, A. Ndour, Sandro Lima

Ararat-Armenia have primarily lined up in a 4-3-3 (four times) with a single outing in a 3-4-3, indicating a clear preference for width and a front three. With a narrow aggregate lead, they may lean toward a more balanced 4-3-3, using midfielders like J. Balanta and K. Muradyan to protect the back four while looking to the pace and movement of forwards such as Sandro Lima and P. Ayongo on the break. Discipline could be a factor: players like Franҫa and Zidane Banjaqui already carry multiple yellow cards in this campaign.

Celje Team News

No significant absences reported.

Ararat-Armenia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Celje:

  • None reported.

Ararat-Armenia:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Celje vs Ararat-Armenia

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Double chance Ararat-Armenia or Draw. The prediction block gives Celje only a 10% chance of winning, with Ararat-Armenia and the draw each at 45%. Ararat-Armenia have also won both historical meetings. However, bookmakers price Celje as clear favourites at home: home odds range from 1.36 to 1.48 (implied probability roughly 67.6% to 73.5%), while away odds range from 6.00 to 7.50 (implied 13.3% to 16.7%). Taking a cautious stance aligned with the prediction percentages, the safer angle is to back Ararat-Armenia not to lose via a double-chance market where available.
  • Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Celje’s Champions League matches have averaged 4.6 total goals (7 for, 7 against in 3 games), and Ararat-Armenia’s have averaged 3.0 (9 for, 6 against in 5). The first leg finished 2-1, and both sides have yet to fail to score in this campaign. The prediction advice also points toward a combo of “draw or Ararat-Armenia and +1.5 goals”, reinforcing the expectation of at least two goals in the match. Look for over 1.5 goals in the main goals market.
  • Value Tip: Ararat-Armenia to score at least once. Despite poor away results, Ararat-Armenia have scored 3 goals in 2 away Champions League games (average 1.5 per match), while Celje have not kept a single clean sheet in 3 fixtures. With creative support from Zidane Banjaqui (1 assist) and an experienced striker in Sandro Lima (1 goal), the visitors have enough firepower to find the net. Given that the main match-winner market strongly favours Celje (home odds as low as 1.36), backing Ararat-Armenia simply to score could offer better value relative to their demonstrated attacking output.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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