Aston Villa's Forward Line Transformation: Jackson In, Watkins Out
Aston Villa have ripped up their forward line and started again. Nicolas Jackson is in. Ollie Watkins is heading out.
Villa have agreed a deal worth up to £65m to bring Jackson from Chelsea, a fee that eclipses the money paid for Johan Manzambi and sets a new club record. At the same time, Watkins looks set to join Al-Hilal in the Saudi Pro League, drawing a line under six years, 108 goals and 278 games in claret and blue.
This is not a tweak. It is a reset.
Emery’s overhaul gathers pace
Unai Emery has already overseen a summer of upheaval. Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne have gone, with Jackson joining a wave of new faces that includes Manzambi, Joao Gomes, Zion Suzuki and Matteo Ruggeri.
The disruption showed on opening weekend. Villa, bruised and disjointed, were hammered 4-0 at Brighton. With Watkins unavailable and both Tammy Abraham and 17-year-old Brian Madjo injured, Emery went into the game without a recognised centre-forward. Emiliano Buendia, a playmaker by trade, was asked to lead the line.
Jackson’s arrival changes that. At 25, the Senegal international gives Emery a specialist number nine again, and one he already knows well from their previous spell together.
But anyone expecting a like-for-like swap with Watkins is looking at the wrong striker.
A different kind of number nine
On raw output, Jackson’s numbers last season at Bayern Munich stand up well against Watkins’ at Villa.
Jackson produced 11 goals and three assists in 1,320 minutes across all competitions. That works out at 1.0 goal involvement per 90 minutes. Watkins, with 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes, averaged 0.6 per 90.
Jackson fired more often too. He averaged 3.8 shots per 90, compared with Watkins’ 2.6, and hit the target 2.2 times per 90 to Watkins’ 1.2. His expected goals (xG) rate sat at 0.7 per 90; Watkins’ at 0.5. Even inside the box, Jackson was busier, taking 8.5 touches in the opposition area per 90 to Watkins’ 5.6.
This is not a new pattern. Since January 2020, among players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes, only Erling Haaland has posted a higher non-penalty xG per 90 than Jackson’s 0.55. He lives in dangerous areas. He finds chances.
Finishing them has been the issue.
At Chelsea, Jackson’s Premier League returns were routinely judged against his underlying numbers. In 2023-24 he scored 14 goals from 18.7 xG. The following season he hit 10 from 12.3 xG. In England so far, he has converted 18 of 61 big chances.
Watkins has not been flawless in front of goal either. Since joining Villa in 2020 he has scored 24 of 73 big chances. The volume of misses has always been part of the story with his volume of goals.
Look closer at last season, though, and the gap between them almost disappears. Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of his big chances. Watkins’ figures: 18.9% and 43.2%.
There is one crucial difference. Sample size.
Watkins started 43 matches and played almost three times as many minutes. Jackson started only 15 of his 34 appearances. Opta’s data suggests those substitute-heavy minutes can inflate per-90 numbers. Over a full season as a nailed-on starter, the picture can shift.
That is the gamble Villa are taking.
Pressing, profile and what changes without the ball
The contrast grows when Villa do not have possession.
Jackson averaged 34 high pressures per 90 at Bayern, edging Watkins’ 31.4. The real separation comes in what happened next. Jackson won the ball 2.7 times per 90, against Watkins’ 1.8, and recovered possession in the final third 0.9 times per 90 compared with Watkins’ 0.6.
Among Opta’s striker sample, Jackson sat in the 88th percentile for possession won in the attacking third. Watkins was in the 43rd.
Both are willing runners in behind. Jackson averaged 13 such runs per 90, Watkins 12.7, with the England forward making slightly more that ended inside the penalty area. In the air, though, Watkins offered more, winning 1.2 aerial duels per 90 to Jackson’s 0.7, and he drove with the ball more directly towards goal.
So Villa are not signing a carbon copy. They are trading some aerial presence and that familiar, relentless channel running for a younger forward who presses harder, touches the ball more often, and generates shots at a faster clip.
From reliability to potential
Watkins has been the heartbeat of Villa’s rise under Emery: reliability, running power, goals, leadership. His departure would close one of the most successful chapters of the club’s modern era.
Jackson arrives with a different promise. He is five years younger. He carries the ball more frequently, links play more, creates more for others and, in limited minutes last season, produced high-quality chances at an impressive rate.
The questions are obvious. Can those per-90 numbers survive a heavier workload? Can he sharpen the finishing that drew criticism at Chelsea? The doubts are not imaginary; they are baked into his record.
Yet Villa are not stepping into the dark. Emery has worked with Jackson before. He knows his strengths, his flaws, and the areas he believes he can refine. The club are effectively swapping a 30-year-old whose peak may be now for a 25-year-old whose underlying data hints there is still more to come.
If Watkins completes his move and Jackson leads the line, this will not just be a change of names on the teamsheet.
It will be a change in how Aston Villa’s number nine plays – and, potentially, in how the entire Emery project evolves from here.
