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Ararat-Armenia vs Celje Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Ararat-Armenia and Celje meet at Football Academy Stadium in Yerevan on 4 August 2026 in the 3rd Qualifying Round of the UEFA Champions League. With a place in the next phase of Europe’s elite competition on the line, this tie carries huge significance for two ambitious clubs looking to convert strong early-season form into a historic group-stage push.

Ararat-Armenia come into this clash with a mixed but intriguing Champions League profile: dominant at home, vulnerable away, and generally involved in open games. Celje, meanwhile, have started their campaign unbeaten and free-scoring, suggesting this qualifier could turn into a high-tempo, attacking contest rather than a cagey first leg.

For bettors and fans searching for Ararat-Armenia vs Celje prediction angles, the numbers point to a finely balanced encounter. Historical head-to-head, recent Champions League statistics and market odds all underline how small the margins are likely to be in Yerevan.

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje Key Stats

  • Ararat-Armenia have played 4 Champions League matches this season, winning 2 and losing 2, with both victories coming at home and both defeats away.
  • The only previous meeting between these sides in Europe came on 24 September 2020 in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round, when Ararat-Armenia beat Celje 1-0 after extra time in Yerevan.
  • Ararat-Armenia’s Champions League campaign features 2 clean sheets in 4 matches, both at home, while Celje are yet to keep a clean sheet in their 2 Champions League games, conceding 5 goals.

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: Not available vs Not available
  • Points: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals For: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
  • Clean Sheets: Ararat-Armenia 2 (tournament statistics); Celje 0 (tournament statistics)

Group or domestic standings data are not available for this qualifier, so the clearest picture comes from each side’s Champions League statistics. Across 4 matches, Ararat-Armenia have scored 7 goals and conceded 5, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Crucially, they have been perfect at home so far, winning both matches in Yerevan by an aggregate 4-0.

Celje have only played 2 Champions League matches this season but have made a strong impression: 1 win and 1 draw, 6 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their average of 3.0 goals per game scored and 2.5 conceded underlines how open their games have been. While they lack Ararat-Armenia’s clean-sheet record, their attacking output suggests they will not be overawed in Yerevan.

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje Key Matchups

Z. Shaghoyan vs Celje midfield unit

Z. Shaghoyan has been one of Ararat-Armenia’s most notable contributors in this Champions League campaign. The midfielder has made 4 appearances, starting 3 times and playing 71 minutes in total, scoring 1 goal. Even in limited minutes, that return is significant in a side that spreads its goals around.

Celje’s squad list shows a deep midfield group featuring players such as M. Zabukovnik, S. Sešlar and M. Kvesić, but there is no individual statistical standout in the current data. The battle in the middle of the pitch will revolve around whether Celje’s collective can contain Shaghoyan’s forward bursts and late runs from midfield, especially in the periods when Ararat-Armenia are strongest between 46–75 minutes, where a significant share of their goals has come.

Sandro Lima vs Celje centre-backs

Up front, Sandro Lima offers Ararat-Armenia a focal point. The 35-year-old attacker has started all 4 Champions League matches, logging 79 minutes and scoring 1 goal. His experience and physical presence are important in a side that has already produced home wins of up to 2-0.

Celje’s back line, including defenders such as David Castro, N. Vukasović and L. Koútris, has yet to register a clean sheet in this campaign, conceding 5 goals in 2 games. If Ararat-Armenia can deliver quality service to Lima, particularly from wide areas and set pieces, the Brazilian forward has the profile to trouble a defence that has so far allowed 2.5 goals per match.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have met only once in European competition, and that encounter also took place in Yerevan. The precedent suggests Ararat-Armenia are comfortable hosting Celje in knockout-style qualifiers.

  • 24 September 2020: Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Celje (AET) (UEFA Europa League)

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje Prediction

Stats suggest a finely poised tie. Ararat-Armenia have been strong at home, with 2 wins from 2 and 4 goals scored without reply, backed by 2 clean sheets. Their defensive record in Yerevan contrasts sharply with their away vulnerability, but that is less relevant here with the first leg on home soil.

Celje, by contrast, bring momentum from an unbeaten start (1 win, 1 draw) and a potent attack averaging 3.0 goals per game in the Champions League. However, their inability to keep clean sheets and a goals-against average of 2.5 per match indicate they are likely to concede in Yerevan, especially against a side that rarely fails to score and has yet to draw a blank in this campaign.

The prediction model leans slightly towards Ararat-Armenia, giving them a 45% chance of victory, with the draw also at 45% and Celje at just 10%. With the goals projections expressed as thresholds rather than exact scores, a conservative forecast is appropriate. Expect Ararat-Armenia to edge a competitive, attacking game, with Celje dangerous enough to get on the scoresheet.

Predicted Score: Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje

Ararat-Armenia Recent Form

In Champions League action this season, Ararat-Armenia have alternated wins and losses across 4 matches, reflecting a “WLWL” pattern. All their victories have come at home, both by multi-goal margins and without conceding, while both defeats were away and included a 3-2 reverse. They have scored in every game and kept 2 clean sheets from 4, underlining a strong home foundation but some defensive fragility on the road.

Celje Recent Form

Celje’s Champions League form line of “DW” shows an unbeaten start across 2 matches. They opened with a 3-2 home win and followed up with a 3-3 away draw, scoring 3 goals in each outing. Offensively they have been very efficient, but 5 goals conceded in 2 games highlight a defence that can be opened up, particularly late on, where a notable share of goals against have arrived in the final half-hour and extra-time periods.

Ararat-Armenia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Nersesyan or Joao Bravim; Defenders: Hugo Oliveira, Bruno Wilson, Luís Felipe, Junior Julio; Midfielders: Zidane Banjaqui, J. Balanta, A. Ambartsumyan; Forwards: Sandro Lima, P. Ayongo, Z. Shaghoyan.

Ararat-Armenia have frequently used a 4-3-3 in this Champions League campaign, with that shape appearing in 3 of their 4 matches. The back line is likely to be built around Bruno Wilson and Hugo Oliveira, both regulars with significant minutes and disciplinary records in Europe. In midfield, Zidane Banjaqui brings creativity and has already provided 1 assist in 4 appearances, albeit mostly from the bench. Further forward, Sandro Lima leads the line with support from wide and attacking midfield roles, including the goal-scoring threat of Shaghoyan. The structure suggests a proactive, wing-oriented approach that has served them well at home.

Celje Possible Starting Lineup

GK: Ž. Frelih; Defenders: David Castro, N. Vukasović, L. Koútris, P. Širvys; Midfielders: M. Zabukovnik, S. Sešlar, R. Požeg; Forwards: A. Kotnik, M. Poplatnik, Y. Dukuly.

Celje have alternated between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 across their 2 Champions League fixtures, indicating tactical flexibility. With no single formation dominating, they may opt for a balanced 4-3-3 to match Ararat-Armenia in midfield while maintaining width. Experienced names such as M. Kvesić and R. Požeg in midfield, plus attacking options like A. Kotnik and M. Poplatnik, provide a blend of creativity and finishing. Given their high scoring rate and lack of clean sheets, Celje are likely to approach this tie with an attacking mindset rather than sitting deep in Yerevan.

Ararat-Armenia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Celje Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Ararat-Armenia:

  • None reported.

Celje:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Ararat-Armenia vs Celje

Below are three data-backed betting angles for this UEFA Champions League qualifier in Yerevan:

  • Result Tip: Double chance Ararat-Armenia or Draw. With Ararat-Armenia given a 45% win probability and the draw also at 45%, the home side are strong candidates to avoid defeat, especially considering their perfect home record (2 wins from 2, 4-0 aggregate). Celje’s win probability sits at just 10%. Odds for the straight home win are around 2.87, the draw at 3.20, and the away win at 2.42, making the safer double-chance route appealing.
  • Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Ararat-Armenia’s Champions League matches average 3.0 goals per game (7 scored, 5 conceded in 4), while Celje’s average is 5.0 goals per game (6 scored, 5 conceded in 2). Both teams have gone over 1.5 goals in all their matches so far. With the match winner odds implying a competitive contest and both sides’ attacking profiles strong, backing at least 2 goals looks well supported by the stats.
  • Value Tip: Ararat-Armenia to score at least once. Ararat-Armenia have failed to score in none of their 4 Champions League fixtures and have 4 goals in 2 home matches. Key attackers like Sandro Lima and Z. Shaghoyan have already found the net, while Celje have conceded 5 goals in 2 games and have yet to keep a clean sheet. With the away win priced at 2.42 and Ararat-Armenia’s home attack performing consistently, any market that backs the hosts to score offers potential value relative to their offensive output.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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