World Cup Last-16 Matches Preview: Canada, France, Brazil, and More
The World Cup narrows to a knife edge this weekend. Sixteen teams left, four days, eight games that will redraw the bracket and probably rip up a few scripts along the way.
Here are the ties that demand attention as the last-16 begins.
Canada vs Morocco
July 4, Saturday – Houston Stadium, 17:00 GMT
Canada have been chasing Yassine Bounou for years. Once, literally.
Benito Floro tried to convince the goalkeeper to play for Canada, banking on the fact that Bounou spent his first three years in Montreal. The answer was no. On the pitch in Qatar, the rejection hurt even more: Bounou stood firm, Morocco won 2-1, and Canada went home at the group stage.
This time the Canadians arrive with a little more swagger. Two World Cup wins have changed the mood and, crucially, the way they attack. Tajon Buchanan stretches teams on the right. On the left, Alphonso Davies has been pushed higher, freed from the shackles of full-back and back in stride after a hamstring issue that kept him out since Bayern Munich’s Champions League semifinal run. His return against South Africa in the group stage was the first real glimpse of Canada at full tilt.
Jesse Marsch has not been shy about ripping up the midfield. Nathan-Dylan Saliba has stepped in for Ismael Kone, whose broken leg against Qatar forced a rethink. The reshuffle has given Canada more bite and legs in the middle, but it also leaves them walking a tightrope against a Morocco side that trusts its foundation.
Walid Regragui’s “reload” has yet to explode going forward. The Atlas Lions are organised, stubborn, but not yet fluent. They know, though, that Bounou changes the equation. If they can drag this into a penalty shootout, they will back their man between the posts against anyone.
The reward for surviving Houston? In all likelihood, a quarterfinal with France. No one will admit it publicly, but both camps know what is at stake.
France vs Paraguay
July 4, Saturday – Philadelphia Stadium, 21:00 GMT
Paraguay have made a habit of turning France’s World Cups into a test of nerve.
In 1958, France trailed in the second half before detonating with a 7-3 comeback. In 1998, it took Laurent Blanc and a golden-goal header to finally break La Albirroja in the Round of 16. The scars are there in the French record books, even if this current group is writing a very different story.
Right now, Les Bleus are running away from people. They have power, they have pace, and they have Kylian Mbappe. Paraguay may have smothered Germany’s attack in the group stage, but trying to keep Mbappe in your sights for 90 minutes is a different ordeal.
France will not just race down the flanks and hope. The real damage is likely to come through the middle. Michael Olise pulls strings between the lines, Adrien Rabiot drives and glides into spaces that defenders hate to track. Wingers pin full-backs, Theo Hernandez steams up from deep, and suddenly shots are flying from distance.
Paraguay know the history; they have been here before with France. The problem is that this French side looks less interested in drama and more in domination. Survive Mbappe, and you still have to deal with the rest.
Brazil vs Norway
July 5, Sunday – New York/New Jersey Stadium, 20:00 GMT
There are not many nations that can look Brazil in the eye and say: we have a winning record against you. Three, to be precise – Netherlands, Hungary, and Norway. Only one of those has never lost to the Seleção.
Norway’s boast is small but sharp: four meetings, two wins, two draws. Hanging over all of it is that night in 1998, when US referee Esse Baharmast spotted a late foul, awarded a penalty, and Kjetil Rekdal buried it for a 2-1 win. Brazil still topped the group, but Norway’s victory pushed them past Morocco and into the knockouts. It remains one of the great Norwegian football stories, and the last time the country reached the World Cup finals.
They went out to Italy in the first knockout round that year. They have not been back to this stage since. That adds a layer of nostalgia to this rematch, but Brazil are not in the mood for sentiment.
The five-time champions have been searching for a spark all tournament. They may have found it in a teenager. Endrick came off the bench against Japan and injected life, movement, and a sense of risk that had been missing. He will be dwarfed by Norway’s towering defenders, but his timing and fearlessness could still tilt the game.
Norway will try to make it a battle of structure and set pieces. Brazil will want chaos, dribbles, and one-on-ones. Somewhere between those two ideas, a quarterfinal place waits.
Mexico vs England
July 5, Sunday – Mexico City Stadium, 00:00 GMT on Monday
Altitude versus attitude. Juan Carlos Osorio captured it in four words, and the equation has not changed.
Mexico City sits at 2,240 metres, or 7,350 feet. At that height, lungs burn, legs feel heavier, and mistakes arrive half a second earlier than usual. El Tri have turned that into a weapon. Playing in Guadalajara and Mexico City, they have rolled to a 4-0-0 record with an 8-0 goal difference, suffocating teams with possession and relentless tempo.
Their attack hums through the partnership of Raul Jimenez and Julian Quinones, the Colombia-born forward who has added sharp movement and finishing to the front line. Mexico keep the ball, drag opponents from side to side, and then pounce when fatigue loosens the screws.
England’s history against Mexico is strong: six wins, two losses, one draw, including the 2-0 win at Wembley during the 1966 World Cup. Their record in Mexico City, though, is another story – no wins, two defeats, one draw. One of those defeats needed Diego Maradona’s “Hand of God” to tilt the balance for Argentina.
This England side brings something different: Harry Kane leading the line, a squad used to deep runs, and a coach in Thomas Tuchel who is trying to outthink the mountain. Tuchel has gambled on a late arrival to Mexico City, hoping to blunt the effects of altitude by limiting the time players’ bodies have to react. FIFA, for their part, have weighed up moving the kickoff to dodge potential storms.
Whatever the logistics, the stakes are clear. The winner walks straight into a quarterfinal against Brazil or Norway. Survive the air, then survive the opponent.
USA vs Belgium
July 6, Monday – Seattle Stadium, 00:00 GMT on Tuesday
USA keep asking the same question of the world: believe us yet?
A 2-0 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina in the group stage – their first World Cup victory over a UEFA side since 2002 – has shifted the tone. They are organised, aggressive, and suddenly staring at a genuine European heavyweight in Belgium with something more than hope.
They will have to do it without Folarin Balogun. The striker’s suspension strips Mauricio Pochettino of his first-choice No 9 and leaves him with two options: Ricardo Pepi or Haji Wright. Striker depth is thin, and every decision in the front line carries weight.
Belgium arrive with their own story of survival. Against Senegal, Rudi Garcia ripped up convention, and almost his own reputation, with one of the boldest tactical calls of this World Cup. Trailing by two, he hauled off Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku, sent on Dodi Lukebakio and holding midfielder Nicolas Raskin, and watched the game flip. The comeback did not truly ignite until the 86th minute, but it did come, and it reminded everyone that this is still a side that can improvise under pressure.
History leans heavily Belgium’s way. Since their first World Cup meeting in 1930, the Red Devils have won six straight against the USA. For a country the size of the state of Massachusetts, they punch far above their weight.
The Americans see that streak as a challenge, not a sentence. The prize for breaking it is enormous: a quarterfinal date with Portugal or Spain.
Portugal vs Spain
July 6, Monday – Dallas Stadium, 19:00 GMT
Some fixtures carry their own gravity. Portugal vs Spain is one of them.
Portugal did not bring in Roberto Martinez for the group stages. They hired him for nights like this – to handle egos, to manage Cristiano Ronaldo’s minutes, to make ruthless calls when the clock is ticking down.
So far, Martinez has coaxed plenty out of Ronaldo. The veteran forward remains the reference point in attack, the figure around whom everything bends. Yet when the moment came against Croatia, Martinez did not hesitate. Bruno Fernandes had already gone. Vitinha too. Then Ronaldo’s number went up, and Portugal still found a late winner without him on the pitch. It was a reminder that this team cannot, and will not, rely solely on one man.
Across the halfway line, Spain are starting to look like Spain again. La Roja’s attack is finally knitting together. Dani Olmo drives the midfield, threading passes and breaking lines. Lamine Yamal, still so young, is settling into the stage, his confidence growing with each touch. Mikel Oyarzabal brings the cold edge, the finishing touch that turns dominance into goals.
The history between these neighbours is rich and raw. In 2010, Spain shut down Ronaldo and Portugal 1-0 on their way to lifting the trophy. Eight years later, Ronaldo answered with a hat trick in a 3-3 group-stage epic, one of the great World Cup performances of his career.
Now they meet again with a semifinal pathway on the horizon and legacies on the line. Martinez’s gamble, Spain’s resurgence, Ronaldo’s enduring shadow – it all collides in Dallas, where one giant will leave with their tournament redefined, and the other will be left to wonder how long this golden window can stay open.
