North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Prediction: Key Stats and Tips

North Texas welcome Los Angeles FC II to Choctaw Stadium in MLS Next Pro Group Stage action on 26 July 2026, with both sides eyeing vital points in their respective conference battles. The hosts have been inconsistent but dangerous, while the visitors arrive as one of the more explosive yet defensively fragile outfits in the competition.

In the Frontier Division table, North Texas sit 5th with 25 points from 17 matches, boasting a positive goal difference and a strong home attack. Los Angeles FC II, meanwhile, are 3rd in the Pacific Division and 7th in the overall Eastern Conference standings with 29 points from 18 games, currently in the mix for the MLS Next Pro play-offs.

With recent North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II results heavily tilted towards the Texans and both teams showing high-scoring profiles, this MLS Next Pro clash at Choctaw Stadium shapes up as one of the more intriguing fixtures of the Group Stage.

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Key Stats

• North Texas have 25 points and a +6 goal difference from 17 matches in 2026 MLS Next Pro Group Stage play.
• Across the last five head-to-head meetings, North Texas have repeatedly scored heavily, including 4-2 and 4-0 away wins and an 8-7 penalty shootout success after a 2-2 draw.
• In 2026 tournament statistics, North Texas average 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Los Angeles FC II also average 1.7 scored but 1.9 conceded.

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 5 vs 3
• Points: 25 vs 29
• Goals For: 27 vs 28
• Goals Against: 21 vs 30
• Clean Sheets: North Texas 3; Los Angeles FC II 1 (tournament statistics)

Standings underline just how tight this matchup is. North Texas, 5th in the Frontier Division with 8 wins and 9 defeats from 17 matches, have scored 27 and conceded 21, giving them a solid +6 goal difference. They have been particularly strong at home with 4 wins from 6, scoring 15 and conceding only 8.

Los Angeles FC II sit 3rd in the Pacific Division and 7th in the Eastern Conference on 29 points from 18 games. Their record is perfectly balanced at 9 wins and 9 losses, with 28 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they are strong (7 wins from 10), but away from home they have struggled badly: just 2 wins from 8, conceding 22 goals. On paper, LAFC II are slightly ahead in points, but the defensive numbers and away form tilt the balance toward North Texas, especially at Choctaw Stadium.

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Key Matchups

North Texas attack vs Los Angeles FC II away defence

North Texas’ forward line has been one of the more productive units in MLS Next Pro this season. In 17 tournament matches they have scored 29 goals, with a particularly potent home record: 16 goals in 6 home fixtures, averaging 2.7 per game. Their biggest home win was a 5-1 scoreline, underlining their ability to run up a score when they get on top.

That attacking power comes up against a Los Angeles FC II back line that has been very vulnerable on the road. LAFC II have conceded 22 goals in just 8 away matches in 2026, an average of 2.8 per game. Their heaviest away defeat was 4-1, and they have kept no clean sheets away from home in this campaign. If North Texas can establish territory and tempo early, the matchup strongly favours the home side’s attack.

Set-piece and penalty situations

Another key tactical subplot lies in dead-ball situations. North Texas have not been awarded or converted any penalties in the 2026 tournament so far (0 taken, 0 scored), while Los Angeles FC II have been heavily involved from the spot: 16 penalties taken, 12 scored at a 75.00% conversion rate and 4 missed.

This suggests LAFC II both generate and concede enough chaotic moments in the box to bring penalties into play. Given North Texas’ aggressive attacking profile and LAFC II’s disciplinary record — including multiple red-card incidents across different time windows — any lapse could hand the visitors a crucial set-piece or penalty opportunity to offset their defensive issues. Managing these moments will be vital for North Texas if they want to turn superiority in open play into three points.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have developed a compelling mini-rivalry in MLS Next Pro, with recent meetings producing goals and drama. North Texas have generally had the upper hand, particularly in terms of scoring output.

• 5 October 2025: Los Angeles FC II 2-4 North Texas (MLS Next Pro)
• 25 August 2025: North Texas 0-4 Los Angeles FC II (MLS Next Pro)
• 3 June 2024: Los Angeles FC II 0-4 North Texas (MLS Next Pro)
• 3 July 2023: North Texas 2-2 Los Angeles FC II (North Texas won 8-7 on penalties) (MLS Next Pro)
• 27 March 2023: Los Angeles FC II 0-1 North Texas (MLS Next Pro)

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Prediction

All indicators point towards a high-intensity, high-variance contest. North Texas come in with a mixed recent run (form string “WLWLOL” in the standings) but remain strong at home and have historically matched up well against LAFC II, especially when they can exploit defensive frailties.

Los Angeles FC II’s profile is volatile: 9 wins and 9 losses, no draws, and a negative goal difference despite being in the play-off picture. Their away record — 2 wins and 6 defeats, 11 scored and 22 conceded — is a major concern, particularly against a side that averages 2.7 goals per home game and has already put four past them on multiple occasions.

The prediction model gives North Texas a 45% chance of victory, with another 45% allocated to the draw and only 10% to an away win. That reflects the combination of North Texas’ home strength, LAFC II’s away struggles, and the historical edge in this fixture. Given the threshold-style goals projections (“-3.5” and “-2.5”), the safest call is a narrow home win in a game that could still see chances at both ends.

Predicted Score: North Texas 2-1 Los Angeles FC II

North Texas Recent Form

North Texas’ recent form line in the 2026 Group Stage reads WLWLOL, highlighting their inconsistency. They are capable of stringing wins together — their longest winning streak in the tournament is three — but have also suffered three-game losing runs. Across 17 matches they have 8 wins and 9 losses with no draws, scoring 27 and conceding 21, which underlines a team that plays on the front foot and lives with the risks that entails.

Los Angeles FC II Recent Form

Los Angeles FC II’s recent form is similarly streaky, with a standings form string of LLOLOWW. Over 18 matches they have 9 wins and 9 defeats, again with no draws. They have enjoyed a four-game winning streak at their best, but their defensive record — 30 goals conceded in the standings, 34 in wider tournament statistics — shows how quickly things can unravel, especially away from home where they have lost 6 of 8.

North Texas Possible Starting Lineup

With no confirmed lineup data, a likely North Texas selection will be built around their available squad core:

GK: E. Dymora or B. Thompson
Defenders: Alvaro Augusto, J. Biggar, Leandro, Enzo Newman, Slade Starnes
Midfielders: F. Aroyameh, N. James, T. Ospina, Umberto Pela, C. Swann
Forwards: D. Baran, J. Contreras, E. Nys, Ricky Louis, Nicholas Simmonds

North Texas have good depth across the back line and midfield, with several young defenders such as J. Gibson and Z. Molomo also options. In attack, the presence of multiple attackers like D. Baran, J. Contreras and E. Nys gives flexibility to play with either a central striker plus wide forwards or a more fluid front three. With no injuries reported, the coach should be able to select an aggressive, attack-minded XI to press LAFC II’s vulnerable away defence.

Los Angeles FC II Possible Starting Lineup

Los Angeles FC II also have a deep and youthful squad to draw from:

GK: Cabral Carter or T. Hasal
Defenders: T. Babineau, C. Diaz, L. Goodman, S. Minor-Kaplan, Kenny Nielsen
Midfielders: M. Evans, B. Moyado, Jude Terry, Lisandro Torres, G. Zambrano
Forwards: Tommy Mihalic, Sebastian Nava, C. Kosakoff, M. Aiyenero, N. Mardaresco

LAFC II’s structure typically relies on a technical midfield and mobile forwards like Tommy Mihalic and Sebastian Nava to exploit transitions. However, their away defensive record suggests the back line — including young defenders such as E. Ponciano and J. Santiago — will be under sustained pressure. Balancing attacking ambition with greater protection for the defence will be key if they are to avoid another heavy defeat against North Texas.

North Texas Team News

No significant absences reported.

Los Angeles FC II Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

North Texas:

• None reported.

Los Angeles FC II:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back North Texas draw no bet or double chance. With a 45% win probability for North Texas, 45% for the draw and only 10% for an away win, combined with LAFC II’s poor away record (2 wins, 6 losses, 22 conceded), siding with the hosts while covering the draw looks the most sensible result-based angle.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 total goals. North Texas average 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match in 2026, while LAFC II average 1.7 scored and 1.9 conceded. Recent head-to-heads have produced scorelines of 4-2, 4-0 and 2-2, suggesting a strong chance of at least three goals again.
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score. Despite North Texas’ defensive edge, LAFC II have found the net regularly (30 goals in 18 tournament matches) and are heavily involved in penalty situations (16 taken, 12 scored). Given their attacking threat and North Texas’ open style, BTTS offers value in what should be an end-to-end contest.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.