Levante vs Mallorca: Relegation Battle in La Liga

Relegation tension hangs thick in the air as Levante and Mallorca walk out at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in Valencia on 17 May 2026, knowing that one misstep could define their entire year. Levante start the day in the drop zone, Mallorca just above it, both locked on the same points and separated only by fine margins. Under the late-spring sky, this feels less like a regular league game and more like a playoff for survival.

Season Context

Levante arrive in deep trouble despite a recent revival. They sit 18th with 39 points from 36 matches, having scored 44 goals and conceded 59 (goal difference -15). The numbers paint a fragile side but one that has found ways to win recently, keeping their hopes of avoiding “Relegation - LaLiga2” alive.

Mallorca are only marginally better off. They are 17th with 39 points from 36 games, matching Levante’s 44 goals scored but defending slightly better with 55 conceded (goal difference -11). That slimmer defensive record is the only thing currently keeping them above the bottom three, underlining how high the stakes are in Valencia.

Form & Momentum

Levante’s recent form string of WWLDW suggests a late surge when it matters most, supported by their total of 44 goals in 36 games (1.2 per match) and a leaky but manageable defence at 59 conceded in 36 (1.6 per match). That combination points to a team that is attacking with intent while still living dangerously at the back, yet the three wins in that five-game run (WWLDW) show a side responding under pressure.

Mallorca’s run of LDWLD is far more erratic, with just one win in their last five and points slipping away at a critical juncture. Over the full campaign they mirror Levante’s 44 goals in 36 matches (1.2 per game) but are slightly tighter defensively with 55 conceded (1.5 per game), a profile that hints at a more conservative, risk-averse approach that has not fully translated into security in the table (LDWLD).

Head-to-Head Patterns

Recent meetings underline how finely balanced this matchup can be. On 26 October 2025, Mallorca and Levante drew 1-1 in La Liga (La Liga, season 2025, October 2025), a result that reflected the narrow gap between the sides. Earlier, on 8 January 2022, Levante claimed a 2-0 home win over Mallorca at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia (La Liga, season 2021, January 2022), showing how powerful the Valencia venue can be for the hosts. Going back to 2 October 2021, Mallorca edged a 1-0 home victory over Levante (La Liga, season 2021, October 2021), reinforcing the idea that home advantage has often tipped this rivalry.

Tactical Preview

Levante’s statistical profile suggests a team that plays on the front foot but accepts defensive risk. Their most used setups are 4-2-3-1 (11 matches), 4-4-2 (10 matches) and 4-1-4-1 (8 matches), with occasional switches to a back five in a 5-4-1 (3 matches). With 44 goals from 36 league games (1.2 per match) and 59 conceded (1.6 per match), Levante look like a side that pushes numbers into attacking zones, often leaving space behind. The 4-2-3-1 and 4-4-2 structures give room for attackers such as José Luis Morales and Iván Romero, supported by creative midfielders like Pablo Martínez and Jon Ander Olasagasti, to combine between the lines and attack wide areas.

Defensively, Levante’s high concession rate (59 goals in 36) hints at vulnerability when transitions break through their midfield shield. The presence of experienced defenders such as J. Toljan and Manu Sánchez, backed by goalkeepers like M. Ryan and Pablo Cuñat, will be crucial if they continue to commit bodies forward. Their use of a 5-4-1 in selected games (3 times) suggests a fallback option: pack the back line, protect the box, and rely on counter-attacking outlets like Iker Losada or José Luis Morales when protecting a lead.

Mallorca, by contrast, show a more structured, slightly more defensive identity. Their primary formation is also 4-2-3-1 (20 matches), but they frequently shift into 4-3-1-2 (7 matches) and 5-3-2 (4 matches), indicating a coach willing to reinforce central areas and the back line. With 44 goals scored and 55 conceded across 36 games, they are marginally more solid at the back (1.5 goals conceded per match) while offering similar attacking output (1.2 goals per match). The 5-3-2 and 4-3-1-2 shapes, in particular, point toward a compact block designed to protect central zones and spring forward through quick outlets.

In attack, Mallorca lean heavily on V. Muriqi, an attacker who has scored 22 goals and provided 1 assist while taking 85 shots and hitting 47 on target. V. Muriqi’s physical presence and duel volume (416 duels, 214 won) make him the reference point for long balls and crosses. Around him, midfielders like Samú Costa and Pablo Maffeo contribute significant defensive work and ball progression: Samú Costa has 62 tackles and 25 interceptions, while Pablo Maffeo has 60 tackles and 33 interceptions, numbers that fit a side comfortable defending deep and then driving forward down the flanks.

Discipline could also shape the tactical rhythm. Mallorca’s midfield and defensive core includes Samú Costa and Pablo Maffeo, each with 10 yellow cards, underlining an aggressive approach in duels that can disrupt opponents but also invite set-piece danger. Levante, for their part, show a readiness to mix structures and take risks, as evidenced by their variety of formations and relatively high goals conceded, which could make this game open once the first goal arrives.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: La Liga, season 2025 — 17 May 2026.
• Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia.
• Prediction: Win or draw — Double chance : Levante or draw.
• Win Probabilities: Home 45% / Draw 45% / Away 10%.
• Model: Levante 55.3% — Mallorca 44.7%.

Betting Verdict

The prediction model leans clearly towards Levante avoiding defeat, with a “Win or draw” call and only a 10% assigned chance to a Mallorca victory. With Levante’s stronger recent run (WWLDW) and home advantage, backing the “Double chance : Levante or draw” aligns with both form and the head-to-head pattern that has often favoured the hosts in Valencia. Home odds are generally around 2.10–2.20, with the draw roughly in the 3.25–3.45 range and Mallorca around 3.15–3.66, suggesting the market also tilts towards the hosts. In a match where both teams share 39 points and identical goals scored, the combination of Levante’s momentum and their historical edge at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia makes the double-chance angle the most defensible play.