Girona vs Elche Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Relegation tension hangs over Estadio Municipal de Montilivi as Girona host Elche in the final La Liga round on 23 May 2026. With just two points separating the sides and both still mathematically in danger, this clash has all the ingredients of a survival decider.

Girona come into the game 18th on 40 points, sitting in the LaLiga2 relegation zone. Their season record of 9 wins, 13 draws and 15 defeats, with 38 goals scored and 54 conceded, underlines a campaign built on narrow margins and too many slips. Elche, 17th with 42 points from 10 wins, 12 draws and 15 losses, have a slight cushion but know defeat in Girona could still drag them into trouble depending on other results.

Stats suggest a tight, low-scoring encounter between two sides whose La Liga form has been inconsistent, and interest in Girona vs Elche prediction and betting tips will be high given what is at stake. With Elche’s dreadful away record up against Girona’s poor recent league form, this is a classic “who blinks first” scenario at Montilivi.

Girona vs Elche Key Stats

• Girona sit 18th with 40 points from 37 games (9W-13D-15L, 38 GF, 54 GA), currently in the relegation zone.
• In their most recent La Liga meeting on 7 December 2025, Elche beat Girona 3-0 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
• Girona average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per league match this season, while Elche average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.

Girona vs Elche — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 18 vs 17
• Points: 40 vs 42
• Goals For: 38 vs 48
• Goals Against: 54 vs 56
• Clean Sheets: Girona 6 vs Elche 8

The standings paint a picture of two flawed but competitive sides. Girona’s -16 goal difference (38 scored, 54 conceded) highlights a team that struggles at both ends: they score just 1.0 goals per game and concede 1.5. Elche are marginally better going forward with 48 goals, but their defence has also leaked 56, matching Girona’s 1.5 goals against per match.

Home and away splits sharpen the contrast. Girona have been modestly competitive at Montilivi with 6 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats, scoring 20 and conceding 26. Elche, by contrast, are heavily reliant on their home form: they boast 9 wins, 8 draws and only 2 defeats at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, but away from home they have just 1 win, 4 draws and 13 losses, with 18 goals scored and 37 conceded. On paper, that travel sickness gives Girona a real opening despite their league position.

Girona vs Elche Key Matchups

Vitor Nunes vs D. Affengruber

With no attacking stars highlighted in the scoring charts, this contest could be defined by the defensive leaders, and few have been more central to their teams than Girona’s Vitor Nunes and Elche’s D. Affengruber.

Vitor Nunes has been a near ever-present for Girona, with 35 appearances and 34 starts, clocking 3048 minutes. As a defender, he has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist, but his main value lies in his 48 tackles, 40 blocks and 32 interceptions, plus 163 duels won from 282. His aggressive style is reflected in 7 yellow cards and 1 red card, underlining both his importance in breaking up play and the disciplinary risk he carries in a high-stakes fixture.

Affengruber has been similarly vital for Elche. With 35 appearances (32 starts) and 2868 minutes, he has matched Nunes’ output with 1 goal and 1 assist from the back. Defensively he has 72 tackles, 25 blocks and 50 interceptions, and he has won 178 of 280 duels, indicating a strong presence in both ground and aerial battles. Like Nunes, he walks a disciplinary tightrope with 6 yellow cards and 1 red card this season.

Aleix Febas vs Girona’s back line

On the Elche side, midfielder Aleix Febas stands out as a key creative and combative influence. He has started all 35 of his appearances, playing 3082 minutes, scoring 2 goals and providing 2 assists. His 14 shots (8 on target) and 27 key passes from 1934 total passes at 89% accuracy show how much of Elche’s build-up runs through him.

Febas also brings significant defensive work: 73 tackles, 4 blocks and 25 interceptions, alongside 241 duels won from 397 and 53 successful dribbles from 90 attempts. Crucially, he draws fouls at a remarkable rate (109 fouls drawn) and has collected 10 yellow cards. His ability to carry the ball, win set-pieces and disrupt Girona’s shape will be a major test for a Girona defence that already concedes 1.5 goals per game.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent head-to-head meetings between Girona and Elche have been closely contested, with momentum swinging between the sides across league and cup. The last five competitive fixtures show three wins for Elche and two for Girona.

• 7 December 2025: Elche 3-0 Girona (La Liga)
• 6 January 2024: Elche 0-2 Girona (Copa del Rey)
• 16 April 2023: Girona 2-0 Elche (La Liga)
• 8 November 2022: Elche 1-2 Girona (La Liga)
• 23 August 2020: Girona 0-1 Elche (Segunda División)

Girona vs Elche Prediction

Form and metrics lean slightly towards Elche. Their last-five record is stronger, with a “form” rating of 47% compared to Girona’s 13%, and they have scored 6 goals in their last 5 league games to Girona’s 3. Overall comparison data edges Elche 53.8% to Girona’s 46.2%, and the prediction model tags Elche as the more likely side to avoid defeat, with 45% win probability and 45% for the draw, against just 10% for a Girona victory.

However, Elche’s away record (1 win in 18) tempers that advantage, especially at a ground where Girona have been at least competitive. Both sides average around 1 goal scored and 1.5 conceded per game, and under/over patterns point strongly towards a low-scoring contest: Girona have gone over 2.5 goals in only 2 of 37 matches, Elche in just 3 of 37. With so much at stake and both teams prone to tight games, a cautious, attritional battle looks likely.

Predicted Score: Girona 1-1 Elche

Girona League Form

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Elche League Form

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Girona Possible Starting Lineup

Rubén Blanco; Daley Blind, David López, Arnau Martínez, Vitor Nunes; Fran Beltrán, A. Witsel, D. van de Beek, Iván Martín, T. Lemar; Abel Ruiz.

Girona have frequently lined up in a 4-2-3-1, and the squad profile suggests a similar shape here. Rubén Blanco is a leading candidate in goal, protected by an experienced defensive core including Daley Blind, David López and Arnau Martínez, with Vitor Nunes adding physicality and aggression. In midfield, the likes of Fran Beltrán, Axel Witsel and Donny van de Beek offer control and passing range, while Iván Martín and Thomas Lemar can operate between the lines. Up front, Abel Ruiz provides a focal point, with options such as Cristhian Stuani and Viktor Tsygankov available to change the game from the bench.

Elche Possible Starting Lineup

M. Dituro; D. Affengruber, Bigas, Víctor Chust, Adrià Pedrosa; Aleix Febas, Marc Aguado, F. Redondo; G. Diangana, André Silva, Rafa Mir.

Elche have alternated between back-three and back-four systems, but their repeated use of 3-5-2 and 5-3-2 hints at a flexible defensive structure. Veteran goalkeeper M. Dituro should marshal a back line anchored by D. Affengruber, with experienced support from Bigas and Víctor Chust, and width from Adrià Pedrosa. In midfield, Aleix Febas is the key hub, supported by Marc Aguado and F. Redondo. Going forward, André Silva and Rafa Mir provide penalty-box presence, while Grady Diangana offers dribbling and creativity from wide or between the lines.

Girona Team News

No significant absences reported.

Elche Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Girona:

• None reported.

Elche:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Girona vs Elche

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Elche double chance (Draw or Away). Predictions give Girona only 10% to win, with draw and Elche each at 45%, and Elche in better overall form. While the match winner market favours Girona heavily (home odds as low as 1.73–1.88 with several bookmakers), the underlying numbers point to Elche avoiding defeat as a strong angle.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Girona have seen only 2 of 37 league games go over 2.5 goals, and Elche just 3 of 37. Both average around 1 goal scored per game and 1.5 conceded, with recent H2H meetings often tight despite a few outliers. With tension high on the final day, a cagey, low-scoring encounter is more likely than the odds may imply.
• Value Tip: Elche to avoid defeat boosted via away underdog pricing. Match winner odds show Elche as big outsiders (up to 4.50 away with Betfair and around 4.35 with Pinnacle), despite comparison metrics giving them a slight edge overall and a clear advantage in recent form. Combining Elche’s strong home-season profile with Girona’s poor form and disciplinary concerns around key defender Vitor Nunes suggests the away side are overpriced in the market.

How to Watch Girona vs Elche

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

• Spain: Movistar LaLiga
• UK: Premier Sports
• Australia: beIN Sports
• India: FanCode
• MENA: beIN Sports
• South America: ESPN / Disney+
• Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.