Arsenal W vs Everton W Preview: FA WSL Clash at Emirates Stadium

Arsenal W welcome Everton W to Emirates Stadium on 13 May 2026 in FA WSL round 21, with the hosts pushing to cement a Champions League qualification place. Arsenal sit 3rd with 45 points from 20 matches (13-6-1, 49:13), while Everton are 8th on 20 points (6-2-12, 24:36). The table and odds both frame this as a heavy mismatch.

Over the last eight league games, Arsenal’s overall form is elite. Their league record shows only 1 loss in 20 and a goal difference of +36, underpinned by 49 goals scored and just 13 conceded. At home they are unbeaten (7-3-0, 27:6), averaging 2.7 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match. Everton, by contrast, have been inconsistent: 6 wins and 12 losses overall, with a negative goal difference of -12. They are actually more competitive away (4-2-4, 14:14) than at home, but still concede 1.4 goals per away game and score only 1.4.

Recent underlying performance metrics from the prediction model are strongly in Arsenal’s favour. In their last five matches, Arsenal’s attack index is at 100% with 21 goals scored (4.2 per game) and only 3 conceded (0.6 per game), while Everton’s last-five attack index is 50% with 7 goals scored (1.4 per game) and 10 conceded (2 per game). The comparison module rates Arsenal at 68% vs 32% on form, 75% vs 25% in attack, and 77% vs 23% defensively. Overall strength is quantified at 75.7% for Arsenal against 24.3% for Everton, which aligns with both standings and market pricing.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data in the FA WSL reinforces the pattern. On 13 December 2025 at Goodison Park, Everton lost 1-3 at home to Arsenal. On 14 March 2025 at Walton Hall Park, Everton again fell 1-3 at home. The last meeting at Emirates Stadium on 6 October 2024 ended 0-0, showing Everton can occasionally frustrate Arsenal away. On 28 April 2024 at Walton Hall Park, the sides drew 1-1, while on 20 January 2024 at Meadow Park Arsenal won 2-1 at home. Going back further, on 17 May 2023 at Walton Hall Park Everton lost 1-4, on 3 December 2022 at Meadow Park Arsenal won 1-0, on 24 April 2022 at Walton Hall Park Everton lost 0-3, on 10 October 2021 at Meadow Park Arsenal won 3-0, and on 2 May 2021 at Walton Hall Park Everton lost 1-2. All of these fixtures are FA WSL matches, with no cup or friendly games mixed in.

Prediction

The prediction engine selects Arsenal W as the expected winner, with the advice explicitly: “Winner : Arsenal W”. The probability split is unusual in that it gives 50% home, 50% draw, and 0% away, but the comparison and h2h modules are heavily tilted towards Arsenal (h2h index 85% vs 15%). The goal lines in the prediction block are stylised as “home -4.5, away -1.5”, but the more practical takeaway from the under/over profiles is that Arsenal’s matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 12 of 20, while Everton’s have gone over 1.5 in 11 of 20. Combined with Arsenal’s recent attacking surge, this supports a scenario of multiple goals for the hosts.

Bookmaker odds strongly validate the model’s stance. Across major firms, Arsenal are priced between 1.06 and 1.12 to win (true probability roughly 85–90% after margin), the draw ranges around 7.50–10.44, and Everton’s away win is out at 15.00–19.00. This is a classic heavy-favourite setup with very little value in the raw home win price but strong confirmation of Arsenal’s dominance.

Betting verdict, aligned with the official prediction data: Arsenal W are overwhelmingly expected to win at home. The straight home win is a near-certainty in model and market terms, though not attractive as a single at such short odds. For more value, bettors should consider Arsenal W to win in a multi-goal margin or combined outcomes (e.g. Arsenal W and over a low goal line), always checking the exact lines and prices available, but the core forecast is a decisive Arsenal W victory.