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AC Milan vs Inter Milan: Predictions, Lineups, and Betting Tips for the Milan Derby

The pre-season Milan derby is set for August 5, 2026, with both sides fielding mixed squads. bet365 odds suggest a first-half draw at 11/8, AC Milan to win at 7/4, and both teams scoring in the first half at 11/5.

First Half Expectations

Last season, both clubs had strong defensive records, each conceding just 35 goals in 38 Serie A games. Yet, early in this friendly, rotations may loosen defensive discipline. AC Milan often trailed or were level at halftime, failing to lead in 74% of league games, while Inter saw 21% of their matches go goalless at halftime and held no half-time lead in 45% of fixtures.

Pre-season friendlies mirror this trend: Inter was tied at halftime against Karlsruhe and Manchester City, while Milan trailed 2-0 at the break before rallying later. Two of their past four derbies ended in a halftime stalemate. Expect the first half in Perth to finish level.

  • Betting Tip 1: First half result - Draw @ 11/8 (bet365)

Milan's Recent Edge Over Inter

Though Inter claimed the Scudetto last season, Milan managed to win both league meetings 1-0. Inter's last derby win dates back to April 2024, leaving them without a victory in seven matches against the Rossoneri. Despite this, Inter’s coach Ruben Amorim has a solid record, winning five of the last seven head-to-heads.

With both teams unbeaten so far in pre-season, the contest is wide open. On neutral ground, and with some key Inter players absent, backing AC Milan to pull off an upset makes sense.

  • Betting Tip 2: Match winner - AC Milan @ 7/4 (bet365)

Goals Expected Early

Even if the half ends level, expect goals from both sides. Inter netted 89 times in Serie A last year, while Milan scored 53 goals, ranking sixth. Both teams featured in first-half BTTS scenarios in a healthy share of games: Milan in 21% of matches, third-best in the league, and Inter leading with 24%. Overall, 47% of their league encounters saw both teams score during the full match.

Inter also tends to start quickly, scoring or conceding within the opening 15 minutes in 14 of 38 games, the third-highest rate in Serie A.

  • Betting Tip 3: First half both teams to score - Yes @ 11/5 (bet365)

Team Form and Score Prediction

This midweek derby takes place in Australia as AC Milan begin a new chapter under Ruben Amorim, who replaced Massimiliano Allegri after Milan missed out on Champions League qualification last season. Some regular starters like Rafael Leao and Luka Modric have arrived but might see limited minutes.

Inter Milan, coached by Christian Chivu, look to defend their domestic double. They've enjoyed a strong start to pre-season, winning friendlies against Karlsruhe and Manchester City (the latter won on penalties after a 1-1 draw).

We predict a thrilling 3-2 victory for Milan, with goals from Francesco Camarda (two) and Ruben Loftus-Cheek. Inter's goalscorers could be Francesco Esposito and Andy Diouf.

Probable Lineups

  • AC Milan: Torriani, Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Athekame, Ricci, Comotto, Bartesaghi, Loftus-Cheek, Ossola, Camarda
  • Inter Milan: Martinez, Pavard, Bisseck, Bastoni, Diouf, Barella, Stankovic, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco, Esposito, Iddrissou

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